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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum MEG Energy Corp T.MEG

Alternate Symbol(s):  MEGEF

MEG Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company focused on in-situ thermal oil production in the southern Athabasca oil region of Alberta, Canada. The Company is engaged in the development of enhanced oil recovery projects that utilize steam-assisted gravity drainage extraction methods to improve the economic recovery of oil. It transports and sells thermal oil (AWB) to customers throughout... see more

TSX:MEG - Post Discussion

MEG Energy Corp > Out from Raymond James
View:
Post by 2021Gamble on Nov 14, 2022 11:20am

Out from Raymond James

MEG Energy Downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James
 
14 Nov 2022 11:15 ET  

11:15 AM EST, 11/14/2022 (MT Newswires) -- MEG Energy Corp. (MEG.TO) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James.

Analyst Michael Shaw maintained a price target of $22 on shares of the Calgary-based oil sands producer.

"MEG is facing a number of headwinds going into 2023," Shaw said in a note to clients. "Top among them is the persistently high differential on heavy sour barrels in both the USGC and Western Canada."

"While we agree with MEG's assessment that the abnormal heavy differentials will not last forever, it is difficult to assess when the US SPR releases or the impact of heavy Russian barrels trying to find a home will end," the analyst said.

"...MEG remains one of the best ways to play Western Canadian heavy oil prices," Shaw said. "Its long-lived, low decline, and low sustaining capex project make it an attractive investment over the long-term. As a tactical measure, we are lowering our rating to Market Perform to reflect current headwinds and relative valuation."

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

Price: 20.24, Change: -0.29, Percent Change: -1.41

Comment by churchofnutsacc on Nov 14, 2022 11:57am
They will most likley free cashflow over $1 per share for Q4, even with these differentials. And I can't imagine the differentials getting WORSE from here (I know, famous last words) - so I don't understand what these analysts are smoking.
Comment by MigraineCall on Nov 14, 2022 4:53pm
Yes there are some headwinds, but also some potential upside factors looking forward as well: - We have an OPEC meeting Dec 4, where there are rumors of another cut already, .5M bbls - OPEC production missed by .2M bbls in Oct as countries can't even meet their quotas - Shale oil DUC count rising as frac spreads are maxed out, shale oil output is flattening - SPR Emergency Midterm Releases ...more  
Comment by HighOctane89 on Nov 15, 2022 11:36am
I don't understand how there are headwinds for MEG but nobody else .......... it makes no sense . When you consider Meg sells over 50% of its product at the US gulf coast I would say that Meg has a better price buffer than most CDN producers .  We all know these companies are rolling in FCF , Meg has paid down over $1.5B since covid hit and will owe less than $1B by years end . With only ...more  
Comment by alwaysmoving on Nov 15, 2022 12:21pm
I completely agree, MEG shares are underperforming the market compared to its peers which I think we all here can agree the company is by no means underperforming from a material view. The general market will catch on and i side with Migraine that anything under $20 is a buy. I've been adding to my pile since yesterday afternoon, it'll take a bit of patience but the market will soon see ...more  
Comment by churchofnutsacc on Nov 15, 2022 12:36pm
The same analyst, while downgrading Meg, upgraded Suncor. You can't make this stuff up. Kinda silly how a couple of not very detailed, brief notes from two analysts can completely put a wall up on the share price. Great for those out there that are buulding a position, frustrating for those of us who have already built our position. We will have to just let the fins and buybacks do the ...more  
Comment by HighOctane89 on Nov 15, 2022 5:01pm
It's ridiculous , plain and simple , forward looking mechanism my A$$ . I have seen that "analyst" effect too many times in the past , pointing out past history as new info is pathetic . A half baked revelation on WTI/WCS differential is nothing more than share price manipulation but if thats gonna be the game then PLAY BALL !!!!! I grabbed shares this morning at $19.31 and at $19 ...more  
Comment by MaximusGainus on Nov 15, 2022 2:24pm
Geopolitical event risk is certainly not priced into oil now. I would have guessed it would have been some blowup in some backwards dustbowl desert land, but the country driving oil prices up now is Poland.
Comment by HighOctane89 on Nov 14, 2022 4:19pm
Some analyst douche who has never set foot in Alberta throws out some double-talk downgrade like that (great long-term investment - short term headwinds) and the stock drops like a stone . 2 years ago these prices were a windfall , today they're a headwind . It would be more reassuring if the contributing analyst had more experience in O&G than just filling his gas tank or turning up the ...more  
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