MEG Energy Corp T.MEG

RBC Greg Pardy SEES MEG OUTPRICING CVE In 2024

[ztransforms173]

That led him to upgrade MEG Energy Corp.  to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a $31 target, up from $27 and above the $27.77 average on the Street, according to Refinitiv data.

“Our third-quarter outlook for MEG incorporates bitumen production of 102,000 barrels per day (vs. 98,000 bbl/d previously), up 19 per cent sequentially following planned turnaround activities at Christina Lake completed in the second quarter,” he said. “We peg MEG’s third-quarter bitumen realization at $98/bbl, with all-in operating costs at $8.28/bbl (excluding estimated power sales of $38-million) and royalty rate of 26 per cent (on net revenue). All said, our third-quarter operating cash flow estimate for MEG sits at $470-million ($1.65 per share) with estimated free cash flow of approximately $372 million in the context of $98-million of capital investment. We peg MEG’s net debt (company definition) at $1.0-billion (US$747-million) as of September 30 (before working capital movements)—down from $1.32-billion on June 30 — amid common share repurchases of $58 million. Our 2024 outlook for MEG factors in production of 105,000 bbl/d amid a $525 million capital spending program.”

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THANKS 'retiredcf' from the CVE SH BB:

retiredcf - (10/10/2023 8:14:53 AM)
 

RBC Raises Target

https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/cve/cenovus-energy-inc?replyto=35676627&threadid=35676627&source=bullboard

z173
 

[ztransforms173]

better now (NAVIGATION): https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/cve/cenovus-energy-inc?postid=35676627 z173

[KozmoT]

LOL... good thing he bumped up that $27 target, almost there already!

[vwbusman]

If the debt figures are correct in this case (Q3 debt down to 1 billion from 1.32 billion) - that would mean the debt target for 100% of FCF to shareholders (600 million) could be achieved by mid 2024 if WTI cooperates.  I think Q3 was a bit of a top point for oil for the next while and the WTI/WCS has widened recently so that could be pushed out another quarter. My estimate would be Q3 next

[jleer42]

The debt math does not work for me when looking at Meg's Aug presentation. I am wondering if Greg's $1b in debt is in USD while Meg was talking CAD. Meg itself flips back and forth between currencies, while it reports its total debt in CAD, it then talks total debt paid and debt maturity profile in USD.  Meg's total debt target is $600MM USD, but it's July ending total debt

[ztransforms173]

jleer42 - (10/12/2023 8:23:41 AM)   RE:RE:RBC Greg Pardy SEES MEG OUTPRICING CVE In 2024   The debt math does not work for me when looking at Meg's Aug presentation. *** - you have to DEDUCT the CASH BALANCE on HAND to get to the NET DEBT POSITION MILESTONE - the ADDITION of the LONG-TERM NOTES (2027 and 2029) is NOT the NET DEBT MARKER - SEE Q2/2023 MEG Report: @ June

[jleer42]

z173 thanks for the response. My point is from Meg's August presentation, sales volumes, and oil pricing I don't see how they could have paid down $300MM of debt in Q3. I do agree when I said "July ending total debt was ~$1.1b USD" your 1,053.6-66 = $994MM USD is more accurate. I do hope Greg is correct, it will be very good for Meg.

[ztransforms173]

- RBC Greg Pardy "SEES" ADJUSTED FUNDS FLOW (AFF) of C$ 470 million in Q3/2023 - FREE CASH FLOW (FCF ) of C$ 372 million with a CAPEX of C$ 98 million - ONLY C$ 58 million in SHARE BUYBACKS *  this MEANS that the DEBT REDUCTION in Q3/2023 will be: 372- 58 = 314 - SO a HUGE C$ 314 MILLION in DEBT REPAYMENT and CANCELLATION assuming ZERO CHANGE in WORKING CAPITAL {which is NOT

[vwbusman]

Not sure how your math works on that - if you reference numbers from Q2: Financial Performance Adjusted Funds Flow      $278mm ($0.96/share) Capex                                                                 $149mm

[ztransforms173]

vwbusman - (10/15/2023 7:50:16 AM)   RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RBC Greg Pardy SEES MEG OUTPRICING CVE In 2024   Not sure how your math works on that *** - first of all, those are RBC's GREG PARDY PROJECTIONS and NOT mine - I ALREADY STATED that the WORKING CAPITAL of MEG will SHIFT to HIGHER ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLES so the $ 314 million NET DEBT REPAYMENT (Pardy FORECAST with 

[vwbusman]

Wow - I guess you found where the CAPS LOCK is on your keyboard lol

[ztransforms173]

vwbusman - (10/16/2023 6:17:40 AM)   RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RBC Greg Pardy SEES MEG OUTPRICING CVE In 2024   Wow - I guess you found where the CAPS LOCK is on your keyboard lol *** - what a CLOWN you are ! _ why do you WASTE prople's TIME on this BB ? z173

[vwbusman]

what ever you say CAPS LOCK KING!  ( I should also note you are also very adept at using the BOLD  and UNDERLINE features - well done!