MEG Energy Corp T.MEG

CC: First Impression: NEW CEO DG: A BIT SHAKY BUT OK

[ztransforms173]

- co-officers HELPED FILTER the analyst's QUESTIONS

- CFO RK is ROCK-SOLID and UNSHAKEABLE

- CEO DG really KNOWS her stuff on BOP PRODUCTION and TIMING

'EXPECTED' Q2/2024 BOP:   ~100,000 bbls/d

'EXPECTED' H2/2024 BOP:   105,000+ bbls/d

'EXPECTED' 2024 EXIT BOP:   >110,000 bbls/d *

* : HIGHEST BOP in company's history

- BODs is LOOKING AT BASE DIVIDENDS 

- MEG will CHEW PART of 2029 Notes once the 2027 Notes are REPURCHASED and CANCELLED

- CFO: MEG will NOT DO VARIABLE DIVIDENDS as the market does NOT VALUE their EXECUTION and the LARGE MEG shareholders are NOT INTERESTED in RECEIVING them

* instead, MEG will UNDERTAKE an SIB when the FREE CASH FLOW is AVAILABLE and the NCIB is EXHAUSTED once the 100% RETURNS FRAMEWORK to shareholders is REACHED

- FALL 2024: BODs will MAKE CAPEX DECISION on THIRD PROCESSING TRAIN at Chistina Lake 

CFO: MEG TAX POOLS stand at $ 4 BILLION and MEG is 'EXPECTED' to PAY CASH TAXES in MID 2027 assuming present STRIP PRICING

SPECULATION:

- it is HIGHLY LIKELY that MEG has TEAMED UP with SHELL as their GLOBAL OPERATING PARTNER in EXPORTING the 20,000 bbls/d AWB barrels VIA the TMX pipeline

* so those reports by Reuters about the 2 million barrel VLCC {4* 500,000 AFRAMAX tanker LOADS transferred at sea} heading to a RELIANCE Refinery in India MEANS that it 'APPEARS' that BOTH MEG and CNQ (Jackfish1/2/3} are in a TMX MARKETING AGREEMENT with SHELL

z173

[ztransforms173]

- let me REPHRASE that: - it 'APPEARS' that BOTH MEG and CNQ are in a MAKETING AGREEMENT with SHELL on their AWB barrels that are TRANSPORTED THROUGH the TMX pipeline and NOT with the TMX CORPORATE ENTITY ITSELF z173

[robert41]

Thx for your posts Z much appreciate the Cole's notes conference call to early living in Vancouver 

[aegisfang9]

Hey Z I didn't listen to the CC this morning. How were they going to get to a '24 exit bop of > 110,000 bbls/day?

[ztransforms173]

easy: - they are DRILLING 2 well pads with 2 drilling rigs this year instead of the NORMAL one well pad with a SINGLE drilling rig * GIVEN the STEAM AVAILABILITY {and they are NEAR their MAX CAPACITY hence the DECISION on the THIRD PROCESSING TRAIN in the fall of 2024}, MORE WELL MEANS MORE BOP - remember, that they are in a THREE YEAR (2024-2026) GROWTH PLAN {with a CAPEX of $ 300