ADDRESSING TWO KEY INVESTOR QUESTIONS FOLLOWING 2025 BUDGET & BUSINESS UPDATE
THE TD COWEN INSIGHT
Below we address 2 key client questions following MEG's 2025 Budget (note) and Business Update (note). Conclusions: 1) there's no reason to expect existing CL prod'n to be negatively impacted as it executes on the expansion to 135mbbl/d; 2) while 2025 prod'n guidance fell 4% short, quarterly prod'n (ex-Q2) should avg. ~105mbbl/d and, normalized for planned downtime, 2025 prod'n should grow 5% y/y.
Impact: POSITIVE
Question #1: How much could the CL Facility Expansion Project (FEP) disrupt existing base prod'n?
Key takeaway: It shouldn't at all, since the CL Facility Expansion Project (FEP), which boosts capacity to 135mbbl/d (from 110mbbl/d), triggers no change to MEG's longstanding steam optimization strategy.
MEG has no intention of prematurely transitioning steam to new well pads prior to on-streaming of its new once-through-steam-generator (OTSG). Investors therefore shouldn't expect any prod'n 'air-pockets' through project development.
Timing of steaming of new well pads will be determined using MEG's steam forecast. As pads transition from SAGD to eMSAGP (employs non-condensable gas injection), steam consumption on legacy pads falls, and becomes available for new pads. Its eMSAGP depletion strategy is considered a proven, differentiated approach to maximizing thermal efficiency, while maintaining reservoir pressure and driving down SORs.
Question #2: What are the various puts & takes on 2025 prod'n guidance landing 4% below consensus?
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2025 guidance was set at 95-105mbbl/d (100mbbl/d midpoint), below prior Street consensus of 104mbbl/d. Q2/25 will see a major CL Phase 2B turnaround (up to 8mbbl/ d annual impact vs. 6mbbl/d in 2022/2023). In addition, a 10-year regulatory inspection will be done alongside strategic FEP tie-ins and an interval study (facilitates the transition to once-every-4-year turnarounds, from 3). Note CL Phase 2B processes two-thirds of volumes. The last time Phase 2B underwent a turnaround (2022), Q2 prod'n averaged ~67mbbl/d, and 95mbbld annualized. In our view, a larger-than-normal turnaround points to higher potential variability. We therefore consider a conservative, wider-than- normal guidance range appropriate.
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Ex-Q2/25, 2025 quarterly prod'n is expected to average ~105mbbl/d, with an H2/25 acceleration as two higher reservoir-quality pads ramp. Normalized for turnarounds, 2025 volumes are expected to grow a respectable 5% y/y.
Bottom-line: We do not expect CL base prod'n to be negatively impacted through FEP development, CL vols should avg. ~105mbbl/d (ex-Q2), and 2025 vols should grow 5% y/y on a normalized basis.