Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

PROP

[JohnJBond]

Today's NR includes the expected closing date of Nov 24 (they say on or about, which is the legalese for Nov 24)

Now we've been given a time line to see if the Chinese will try to renegotiate.

Nov 24 is next Wednesday.    If there isnt' a NR by the end of next week, it may be a market signal that the Chinese are trying to pull a fast one.

As for a US (and possibly coordinated with China and Japan), SPR release there seems to be a lot of talk, and no action.

Biden has omitted the part about taking about 430,000 barrels per day out of the US SPR for some time now.

On the otherside, OPEC is talking about excess inventory now and more so next year

You can talk people into inaction, but you can't change demand or supply that way.

Its hard to know what demand is doing, but we do know for certain that supply is being pressured.   Large parts of the Western World are making it hard for oil/gas companies to carry on business - everything from Canadian bankers wanting to reduce their lending to OBE (and all the others like OBE), to large fund managers selling their oil/gas positions.     All of which is greatly reducing drilling, and thereby supply.  

If companies want to drill, they have to do it with money they are making themselves, not borrowing from others.    With fast decline wells - like US shale, maintaining production is hard enough.   

Elsewhere some OPEC countries have apparenlty not been able to keep up with their share of the monthly 400,000 boe increase - meaning OPEC has apparenlty not increased as much as it said it would.

Supply has taken a hit, and is hamstrung in placed like the US and Canada (global producers numbers 1 and 4) by their government's policies.    Foreign investment won't come to Canada as long as Trudeau says he is going to phase out oil/gas

As for Biden, he is between a rock and a hard place.     What he needs to do is scrap his anti oil policies, but he doesn't have the brains, balls or independance to do that.   His masters want higher oil prices to help drive up the share prices of their "green" energy companies.   They may love the idea of Biden draining the SPR - no SPR tomorrow, would mean much higher oil prices tomorrow, and thus much higher telsa et al share prices.     Horrible for American's but great for those who pull Bidens strings.

Biden may well pull something stupid like baning the export of oil and refined products from the US, and draining the SPR.    It would work for a while - until the US SPR runs dry, and then prices get much higher very quickly.   During this period, the only place the US would be able to import oil would be from landlocked Canada.    Trying to artificially alter demand/supply doesn't end well.  Its like trying to stop the tide from coming in.   

As for OBE in such a situation, it would be selling oil for less for a while - which would mean a delay in the dividend, and a reduction in drilling.    They would be back to a maintance program.   Debt reduction would continue, albit it at a slower rate.    How long would this last - don't know - but Trans Mountain expansion should be finished about a year from now.    You may also see Quebec and East Coast provinces howling for Alberta oil by pipe or rail once they find they can't get it from the US, and the Brent price has jumped much higher.

[Mickey2]

damn good post..thank you...keep them coming.

[kavern23]

It is for sure hard to say with definite fact but I don't think Chinese have any room to negotiate. They are screwed with owning a non majority interest. OBE can just let production slide and invest nothing if Chinese got frisky. I was looking at some of the Seal wells we have the other day and I noticed 4 wells that conventiently started on July 1 2021 after not producing for many many

[Hendrick3]

I am sure that OBE would not get this far in the agreement in principle without having cancellation fees should the Chinese company pull the plug. That would only be prudent to cover the costs of arranging financing, brokerage fees on the certificates etc.  I also don't think they would be circling a date on the calendar without some assurances from the company. I know we have been burned

[Kramerkarma]

oils dropping due to covid fears found an amazing chart on Twitter looks like bound for $72-75 based on last wave. This one should be better covid pills and Vax but could be worse winter. Anyways I'm burnt and will look to add based on the severity. I doubt the Chinese are afforded any wiggle room on the deal now. Also hedges and FX is helping alot ... just time for ever waiting for a

[SchoolNmoe42]

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[Moemoney42]

So why were you pumping it after the deal..!! Con man..!

[SchoolNmoe42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Moemoney42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[SchoolNmoe42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[JohnJBond]

The receipts are history, they have no role in the share price now.

[SchoolNmoe42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Moemoney42]

You need someone to dumb it down for ya schoolin..? LOL..

[kavern23]

The irony today is our 4.40 share financing may have saved OBE from 4.35 today...it looked like we had buyers come at 4.40 and support. Obe was down like to 4.42 on like 30000 shares traded....low volume and it appeared like 4.35 was in the cards today. I would take lol a 4.52 close today. WTI just got a hammering. Obe is still fine. And this time I have better bankroll management, not close to

[JohnJBond]

There may have been (were) stop loss orders under a few day traders positions.    With a thinly traded stock like OBE its pretty easy to get a cascade of these triggering, resulting in a quick duck dive. I'm a long term holder, and my postition was built last year.    That said,  I couldn't resist adding a few more today. The energy crisis is not going

[JohnJBond]

As for covid - cases are spiking in Germany and northern Austria, Norway and others where vaccination is low Spike are good - bigger and faster means less to come. India went though a massive delta wave that peaked in May.    They are down to very low relative numbers now.     That spike exposed just about everyone in the Country.    Covid has