Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Takeover market

[kavern23]

Hard to get a gauge on market value...when there has been so few takeovers going on in the patch.

Only ones I can think off in 2022 are Vermillion buying Leucrotta Exploration and Tamarack buying clearwater stuff.

Leucrotta just such a different company that it is a bad comparision too use for any cardium type or Cardinal energy.

It does make a person wonder how Leucrotta was sold for only 477m...and hahah Cardinal Energy has a billion market cap plus a bunch of debt plus a bunch of Aro..

Leucrotta went for crazy cheap and makes a person wonder why the management team would take cash...the explorco they are starting doesnt have the good monteny land...Vermillon got Mica Montney which is crazy  good.

Luecrotta at 700m would be cheap.
They are easily going to be 28-30k boe per day in a few years.....4 zones too develop on that land.
They have wells that can do 4-5m a month in revenue at these commdoity prices.

The low valuations in the takeover market signals OBE has too become a divy pavy to further unlock value as the the takeover market is signalling nobody is going to pay 1 billion in current market conditions.  

Or OBE needs to look at splitting the company in two at some point...that could unlock value.
When Prop is big idea, let it trade on its own.

[JohnJBond]

The takeover market is a feeding ground for anyone with expensive paper  Those who don't follow a dividend model are low hanging fruit just asking to get eaten for chump change  Its an opportunity just waiting for someone to come along with higher priced paper and clean up Loukas will know all about financial engineering.    He will also know how much his performance

[TheRexmember]

I hate to say it but the most logical buyer is Baytex if the Bluesky continues to perform this well and the Clearwater proves up on a good part of their 500 sections.  the economics of the clearwater are so incredible that it could be worth more than the current market cap. Heavy oil is awesome at these prices.  whitecap wouldbe all overthe Cardium land. Bonterra couldn't handle

[TheRexmember]

Tve has a market cap of 2.1 billion. 40k boe/day of production and 500 million of debt. EV of 2.6 billion and they diluted the cr@p out of the company. It is thought to be at a cheap valuation.  they have lower decline rates, solid water flood viking. Charlie lake is great  but the real gem is the clearwater.  We have 30,000 boe/d, a bigger potential  clearwater

[kavern23]

Tamarack Valley and Vermillions choices on what they bought..Montney and Clearwater...kinda signal OBE is going to have to be the consolidator in the cardium. No new company has entered the cardium in years..Richichet Energy bought Arcs cardium stuff and is only new cardium entry I can think off...and that went disgustly cheap at it was ARO high. Seems like just cardum focused companies like

[masfortuna]

I am more and the side of buybacks.