Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

5 active drilling rigs

[JohnJBond]

OBE was criticized for missing its q3 production target because of an extra month of wet weather delayed post break up drilling in Q3

They seem to be doing the opposite now - with 5 rigs drilling 

One is in the Viking.    

Projects have to compete internally for capital 

At current prices those Viking wells must have an IRR of 100%+

The fact the Viking rig was added suggests the other 4 rigs are probably drilling wells with even higher IRRs

If other areas had lower IRRs I suspect Viking would of been drilled instead of something that was previously being drilled

Mondays upcoming NR may result in an upgrade

[JohnJBond]

Don't be surprized if their current production is higher than you were expecting. Their earlier 2023 target production was 37-38,000 boe. That is the average for all of 2023.   ie average 2023 production of 37,000 - 38,000 boe. We don't know what they exited 2022 with.     We do know it was less than 37-38,000 boe. That means to get an average of 37-38,000

[JohnJBond]

On Nov 8/22 OBE was producing 33,000boe How much has that number increased by using 4 or 5 drill rigs for 3 months? Im excited to find out on Monday morning

[Helloworld]

Would think it must be >35,000 bpd. Crazy that OBE with its asset base is trading at a MC of $20k per flowing barrel ($30k on a EV basis). Seems most other mids (CJ and SGY as a couple names) are trading closer to $50 to $60k per flowing barrel. Surprising that there haven't been a takeover offer. Even with a 50% premium it would be $40k per flowing barrel, accreditive to almost all other

[JohnJBond]

It's an interesting situation  OBE tends to get left out of comparable lists from popular influencers like Nuttal etc Those capable of doing their own analysis already own OBE Those who need their hand held before they invest are elsewhere  It's a bit like the ugly duckling that becomes a swan.    It was always a swan, but the majority didn't notice