Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Second Half Capex

[kavern23]

I wonder if they do something like this for second half:

-6 willy wells...leaving at 6 wells as Willy can be high gradeded. But maybe they do 4 wells if wanting to reallocate
-delay the 6 (4.4 net) Pembina wells..Okay stuff but prob weakest in portfolio and easiest to cut
-7 Blue skywells....I think they have to drill in PROP and have production ready for Transmount in 2024 even though other wells can come on faster
-Delay the 2 clearwater wells.
-Add 2 4 well viking padss for total of 8 more viking in decond half.

This should keep production same or better while being lower capex.

I don't know though the capacity available at Viking...that is unkown.

[JohnJBond]

It will probably depend on oil prices  With oil at $80+ I expect they'll stick to their 2023 budget  Oil has been in the low $70 zone for the last several weeks.   It's easy to assume it will stay like that in H2 That probability is very low.    Significant global inventory draws are expected in Q3.    It will be very difficult for oil to stay

[kavern23]

The problem could be that Saudi overplayed their hand...and are forced too take a 1m cut going forward. The extra demand in August for Saudi barrels from asia is not likely too happen. Is a time lag so the peak fall drilling last year is USA is going to hit this summer. EIA has been on low side of USA production numbers in these the weeklys for awhile. March USA production of 12.696m barrels of

[JohnJBond]

Your views are what makes a market. China has indeed recently been importing more than they are using.    This is likely going into domestic storage. President Xi gave a directive to his goverment to prepare for worst case senarios.    A worse case oil senario for China would be an oil embargo.    They need 15-16 million barrels per day, and only produce