Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Cardium players Kavern (Nov and Dec) production estimate

[kavern23]

Note the numbers below dont have NGL's and they dont show JV production given out.
Just want ran through a companies faculties.
Example OBE's whitecap Pembina wouldnt be captured and Bne, YGR and IPO would have to give abit in JVF.

But it can tell month to month changes...as it is apples to apples comparision of data.

Conclusion: OBE is the company kicking butt going into 2024....

		Nov	Dec		Monthly (growth or decrease)
Bonterra	Oil	6990	6531		-459
	Gas	6959	6762		-197
		13949	13293		-656
Yangarra	Oil	1934	2026		92
	Gas	8315	8078		-237
		10249	10104		-145
Inplay	Oil	4161	3842		-319
	Gas	5016	4855		-161
		9177	8697		-480
Obsdian	Oil	16663	17602		939
	Gas	13645	13982		337
		30308	31584		1276

[kavern23]

This is also why OBE is "the" company to give such a detailed operations update in Janaury....they have good news to share right now. That Walrus pad was huge for OBE.  3, 4, 5 top producing oil wells for company was from Walrus. And the 4th well was 16th place for top oil well for company. And OBE top oil well is that willygreen well that is an extension eastward.  And

[JohnJBond]

Many thanks Kavern. Many of OBE's new Q3/Q4 wells only came on production in the second half of Dec/23, so we can anticipate a much larger month on month increase in January. OBE will be giving another NR on Thursday (before market opens), followed by a presentation in which everyone can submit Questions via the presentation web site (please don't use a genital reference if you sign up

[kavern23]

No problem John. Do you know if any of the future Peace River bluesky pads have potential in 5-10 years time to be converted to thermal Sagd wells? IE...produce the wells as cold flow for first 200-250k barrels of oil reserves and then convert to thermal to squeeze out more...using existing already paid off infrastructure and pipelines. In 2012 I think Penwest had gov approval for thermal pilot

[JohnJBond]

That is exactly what I would do, either SAGD or waterfood. As of now, neither are competative IRR wise with cold flow. However in my view, oil will be significantly higher in price a few years down the road (impossible to give a date, but it seems unquestionable that we are at the early stages of outgrowing oil supply). Nuclear power expansion has at least a 2030 horizon. Oil demand will be

[kavern23]

It seems like it was basically 2013 when obe started to drill multi leg wells and that is when cold flow seemed to take off and talk of thermal kinda stopped. The multi leg wells seem 2 to 3 times tighter well spacing than pre 2012 wells. I think sagd has changed abit recently with ng prices being less of a concern and the bigger concern is the extra emissions burned in ng to make the steam

[kavern23]

John the good thing is obe has been smart to hedge ng for future, one of the better companies hedged for 2024 for ng. The problem was ng in short term is new technology has made it too easy to increase production. The inefficient oil and gas companies are bankrupt and majority of oil and gas companies left use tech a lot. Going to take time for lng to work this off. Still way too many