Oncolytics Biotech Inc T.ONC

Good discussion

[Quentin30]

Thanks to all those engaged. It's fascinating to see that holders of this stock have very different opinions.

Nobody challenged the numbers I presented valuing ONCY at 9B... but I had a rethink.. even though the PD-L1 is dosed at 4 vials per session, this does not mean that patients would be getting x4 vials of Pela at each pela infusion.

Assuming it is 1 vial, then it will certainly not be the same cost as that of Bavencio. So if we revise the sales figures accordingly, we get a 1/4 of 450 million... 112 million, valuing ONCY at 2.25 Billion.

Based on current price, that would mean a 20x from here... that's about $36 per share... which I think IS achievable. Sorry guys, I just don't see 9 billion on the cards...

Not considering where we are in this cycle...

revised figures from others more than welcome.

[jimsenior]

to Quentin I have been thinking that it is possible we wll be seeing a pela boost (as in the pre-clinical CAR T). That is to say at some point in the treatment the pela boost will be given without the CPI et al. Pelareorep on its own, and perhaps more than one boost. If that is not too foolish a supposition the boost would boost the value. A layman's thoughts, but it makes sense to me. Cheers

[westcoast1000]

Quentin, Thanks for your estimates and your perspectives. From my perspective, the potential for use of pela in panc and other colorectal indications (we are waiting on the latter data) as well as mBC, as well as for adjuvant purposes with an array of I/O treatments means that I am not worried about multiplying price times quantity in any one context.  If there is a buyout, it will be

[Lesalpes29]

Always appreciate your posts westcoast. Think the same negociations are on. The company is too quiet to be something else. GL 

[Noteable]

If anyone thinks that pelareorep's global annual EARNING will only be 90 MM for a shatre price of $US 36 then they too are lost in the wilderness.

[Quentin30]

Well first Noteable, ONCY needs to demonstrate the CPI + Pela + Pax is significantly better than Pela + Pax alone in order to woo deep pockets to fund a Phase III. Bavencio is not approved for mBC on its own or in combination, and the Bracelet-1 trial with only 15 patients in Cohort 2 and 18 in Cohort 3 will need significant differences in patient cohorts to prove that the triplet is better than