About a year ago, I said to myself , If only nat gas production in the US were to fall by 1 bcf per day then my investments in nat gas stocks will be OK.
So according to
CelsiusEnergy: Natural Gas Main production in the US is currently 93.6-79.5= 14.1 BCF per day lower Prior to the Texas situation the production was running 3 bcf per day lower than 1 year ago
According to the EIA drilling productivity report ( published pre freeze off ) nat gas production was slated to fall by 0.56 bcf per day in March ( based on current drilling rig counts)
As I write, nat gas inventories in the US are 324 bcf lower than last year and 204 bcf below the 5 yr average. Europe is even greater 922 below last year and 92 below the 5 year average
obviously a good part of the Texas production will recover over time. But the world is now racing towards a nat gas shortage all next winter and I would guess that it is already to late for anyone to stop that
The best analogy for energy supply is a cargo ship and not a pleasure craft. Changes in direction have to be made long before you hit the reef !!