Peyto Exploration & Development Corp T.PEY

EIA Report - YoY vs 5 year

[PabloLafortune]

Bullish IMO.

I have my head in the sand, I personally refuse to look at the 5 year inventory report, its a red herring IMO. (I will once producers change their quarterly reporting and rig plans based on current results vs 5 year, LOL.)

Right or wrong, I'm only interested in YoY. That's how producers think, they are the SUPPLY side of the supply demand equation so that's how I think.

So let's compare 2023 to 2022 instead week to week storage changes:

08/05 to 08/12  2023: + 35  2022: +18, 17 B bearish

08/12 ...2023: +18   2022: +60,  42 B bullish

08/19... 2023: + 32 2022: +61,  29 B bullish

08/26... 2023: +33, 2022:+54, 21 B bullish

09/02...2023: + 57, 2022: +78, 19 B bullish

09/09...2023: +64, 2022: +103, 39 B bullish

09/16...2023:  +90, 2022: +103, 13 B bullish

09/23...2023: +86, 2022: +129, 43 B bullish

09/30...10/07 (today): +84, 2022: +125, 41 B bullish

So we have 8 bullish reports in a row (YoY) and they seem to be gradually increasing (subject to ebbs and flows).*


* Next week Celsius forecasts 81 B added, they've been over the actual the last 2-3 weeks so say 75? 2022 was 111, so another 36 B bullish potentially next week (week after EIA in 2022 was 52 vs 75 projected by Celsius so that could be a bad week, 3 weeks later Celsius has 76 vs 107 actual in 2022).

GLTA. YMMV.

[Oldnagger]

The current 5 yr average has been confounded by the fact that peak storage has been below average in 4 of the past 5 years https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/nw2_epg0_swo_r48_bcfw.htm Furthermore annual dry production has increased from 30 to 36 tcf over that same 5 year period Thus on a days forward basis , there is no surplus whatsoever.  https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum