Paramount Resources Ltd T.POU

mhp

[uncutgems]

my post was 90% about the cost to get the liquids out of the ground. pou operates in the Alberta Montney "money pit". tou chose to avoid that area completely, and focus on NE BC where DCET costs are about HALF what they are in Alberta. It's also ideal to feed LNG Canada. Meanwhile POU just sold their last productive asset in BC for a "song"...to? 

tou will produce over 7x the free cash flow of POU in 2022. that is if POU actually is able to deliver on their promise. as you know that's been an "issue" in the past.

as for ARC nobody wants a management with NO skin in the game. hired guns that just collect the paycheck and benefits. 

tou has it all. As a Canadian you should be proud of this world class company right in your backyard.

[Robertboblaw]

Gems, TOU is an excellent company and a fantastic investment. Good for you for owning shares in that company. I'm willing to bet though that your prediction of TOU generating 7X the FCF of POU in 2022 is off base. When all is said and done for 2022, I'm gonna say TOU might generate 2.5X the fcf of POU. Which is still fantastic considering they are 80% NG weighted. But also considering they

[uncutgems]

i don't think you're even close to being up on the numbers. tou has published a 5 year plan and pou has published a one year plan. the numbers suggest you are WILDLY off base with that prediciton. maybe getting up to speed on the latest publshed projection could remedy the situation. I just baed my calculation off the latest published numbers.

[MyHoneyPot]

I think your hear becasue you realize that POU is an uncut gem, Imagine this Karr + Wapiti producing more liquids that TOU in total, that is the near term reality.  If you believe those five you plans, i guess you can predict COVID and have insight to know when OPEC will flood the market again.  POU this quater  paid 154 million off in debt, not considering cash flow contributions

[uncutgems]

nahh tou already producing 105k boe/d of Liquids. that's TODAY. pou corporate production has trouble getting over 80k boe/d. it's going to be YEARS before pou catches up. I predict they never will. they don't have the resource.

[uncutgems]

if pou is telling the truth (big if) karr/wapiti might produce 32k boe/d of liquids next year. that's a Loooong way from 105k boe/d. the things that are said on this board. I really feel for the newbies...

[Robertboblaw]

$1.2 maybe $1.4b is a fair bet on TOUs fcf next year. POU will get to $400mm next year with oil at say $80 avg throughout. So roughly 3X the FCF for 2X the share float. No doubt TOU is a beast of an energy company, but like I said, if oil really heats up going forward, you better bet POU will give them a run for it.

[Robertboblaw]

Also, assuming JR NCIBs 10 to 15% of the current state float this year, TOUs share float would actually be almost 3X POUs. Just sayin.

[Raymondjames]

I'm staying out of the comparison game other than to say that Leon Cooperman was CNBC last week. He owns pou and tou but gave a shoutout to pou. Said pou will be debt free next year, trading at 4x cf, and has a tremendous asset base. If it's good enough for a billionaire Goldman 150 guy, it should be good enough for us $50m guys.  

[uncutgems]

not sure what float has to do with it. float has zero to do with fcf generation.

[Raymondjames]

Nothing to do with fcf generation. Just  fewer mouths to feed when that fcf gets paid out as a special dividend. 

[uncutgems]

you guys are priceless. tou will have 7 times the FCF of POU next year and less than 3 times the share count. tou has 6 times the production of pou and less than 3 times the share count....your numbers make no sense...

[Robertboblaw]

Nothing to do with fcf generation. I'm using the share float as a point of comparison between the two companies. I would think that's a given...

[Robertboblaw]

Comparing companies based on their respective share floats is a useful tool in analyzing companies potential worth as investments. That's 101 in the investment world. If that concept is a little too advanced for you, then I'd have to consider your posts not worth the time in reading them.

[uncutgems]

i would prefer you not  bother responding. saves me a lot of time and bother....

[uncutgems]

i don't believe you know what FCF even is...and how it's calculated. has nothing to do with share float...

[Robertboblaw]

Did I say share float has anything to do with free cash flow dumb@ss?? Here, I'll explain it to you another way, but simpler since you clearly are new to this investing thing and don't have two marbles to scratch together....POU $400mm free cash flow in 2022 (*projected based on current year fcf thus far: no underwater hedges, 80k boes, 45% oil, $80 oil) against 120mm shares = $3.25 in fcf

[uncutgems]

again you will be taken far more seriously if you STOP using messgage board newbie phrases like "share float" and START using phrases like "total shares outstanding" share float is an ENTIRELY different concept than shares outstanding. you may wish to visit investopedia and compare the two phrases. I have to hand it to you for FINALLY realizing that fcf PER SHARE (and not of

[uncutgems]

see this is what happens on BULL BOARDS...you get a lot of "ooops" I did it again stuff. like ohh I think I will just say that POU will produce $215m more FCF in 2022 than internal estimates. because I believe oil is going to AVERAGE $80 next year. and I think I will just say they have 120m shares outstanding instead of the 133m that are ACTUALLY outstanding.. typical BULL BOARD FLUFF

[uncutgems]

ooops you did it again.. you said that 45% of POU total production is categorized as "oil". but you didn't think it through again did you? 14% of POU liquids are Neither OIL or Condensate. They are classified as "other NGLs".... And you have to admit that those other NGLs aren't going to get the oil price are they? do you want to redo your forecast with this new data

[Raymondjames]

Uncut - take a pill and chill man. You gotta relax my man. I may be one of the two musketeers but I've made a ton of dough on pou. That is all that matters. 

[Robertboblaw]

Just for $hits and gigs let's humor you...That guidance they posted used a WTI avg price of $60. Notice I used a higher price of $80 in mine? You can read, am I right in assuming that? Q1 POU produced ~30k Boes of oil and condy combined. So what is 30k boes of oil/condy P/D with an extra $20 per bbl tacked on? Can you figure that one out yourself? Probably not... The current SHARE FLOAT is

[uncutgems]

well without admitting you were wrong, I see you're correcting some of the "ooopsies" from your previous posts. but still calling it "share float" like a bull board newbie. Let me start by saying POU has no plans to buy back stock in the near term. why? because their stated plan is to PAY DOWN THEIR DEBT. they've always carried a lot of debt. most always way too much

[Robertboblaw]

Nope. Wrong again my friend. They've only hedged dry gas production next year. Oil and condy realized prices wont be affected by hedges. Nice try. You do realize they've recently opened up an NCIB, right?

[uncutgems]

genius I didn't say they were hedged now. I said if we start getting higher oil prices near $80 they will hedge. we arne't even above $70 for 22.  I guarantee they will hedge well before the price hits $80. you must realize that the 2022 curve looks to be around $66 at the moment? you are predicting it wil AVERAGE $80. and you based your entire forecast on the price being $80. Like I

[Robertboblaw]

I've got my money on it that WTI will avg ~$80 next year. We were at ~$78 just a few weeks ago. To presume what commodity prices will be 6 to 18 months from now is a tough task no doubt, but I'm going based on the the trends I see continuing...commodity prices in general have been on some pretty wild swings in the last few months so... time will tell... JR has usually kept oil and condy

[uncutgems]

it's super interesting. every time I double check your numbers they are invariably wrong. and they invariably are SLANTED in the favor of your argument. I expect more but I really shouldn't/ It's typical bull board behavior. I must Lower my expectations. For example wti futures never closed at $78. The highest close I can find was $76 and CHANGE. And that was ONE DAY. Again the WTI

[Robertboblaw]

@uncutgems, Are you really claiming to be some kind of  research "fact checker". Case in point you have zero clue what youre talking about: #1 – Did I say oil CLOSED at ~$78?? I said it WAS ~$78…ya know, like ever hear of intraday?? Does it matter for how long it was @ ~$78?? How close is ~$78 to $80??? And how far away from 2022 are we?? Huh?? #2 - With regards to hedging: 

[uncutgems]

I am going to keep this simple. I belive you've demonstrated you're incapable of keeping your points simple. I know I don't bother to read all of what you write, because it's usually a convaluted mess with pletny of factual errors. And I am pretty sure nobody else does eitether. all I need to say is this. you have ZERO idea where gas prices are going and ZERO idea where oil

[RookieReturns]

Uncircumcised is just a troll. Why does anyone engage with them? 

[uncutgems]

this is how folks who don't have the ability to discuss investments on the merits behave on bull boards. exhibit A...

[uncutgems]

it's interesting. you and your feelings....lol you have a "feeling" oil prices are going a lot higher. you have a "feeling" gas prices are headed LOWER... these feelings of yours...I'd love to hear what else you're "feelin" strongly about. 

[uncutgems]

if you are attempting to put a value on a stock I would stop using "share float" and start using shares outstanding.....you would be taken a lot more seriously.

[uncutgems]

won't come close to $400m. but we can dream a little right?

[Robertboblaw]

Lol. Q1 $30mm in fcf with $80mm hedge losses. How are you at math?

[uncutgems]

how are you at common sense? the company's own estimate is $175m.