@ordos Just finished watching yesterday's video. Ok, this is my opinion.
1. I noticed that each of the 4 business lines has increasing current addressable market size, starting with fumed silica at 2B USD (5.5% CAGR), silicon metal at 12B USD (2021) to 20B USD (2030), battery materials at 38B USD (by 2030), hydrogen production at 648B USD (2030). This means that taking up even 5% of battery materials market or 1% of hydrogen production market share would be worth the same or more than currently the entire fumed silica market. It, therefore, makes sense to either go for a fumed silica joint venture with very good cash flow or go for a good lump sum buyout of HPQ Polvere, to pursue and accelerate the commercialization of the other business lines
2. HPQ Silicon's fumed silica production technology will destroy the competition, guaranteed. If none of the big producers act to get in on this in the form of joint venture, offtakes, or buyout, they will go out of business
3. The CEO of Pyrogenesis + long term loyal shareholders own significantly more than 50% of Pyrogenesis, and Pyrogenesis owns 50% of HPQ Polvere after conversion of royalties to ownership. Also, the same long term loyal shareholders of Pyrogenesis are very likely also significant long term loyal shareholders of HPQ Silicon, and therefore it is unlikely that an inferior buyout offer can be pushed through via voting. Moreover, it is the board that first decides whether to recommend the offer of buyout to shareholders. The board, including Bernard and Patrick, would not be interested in clearly inferior offers
4. In this rare and unique situation where a new successfully scaled technology can overtake the entire industry, the buyout value, whether it is 1 time cash payment or some sort of a mix of cash + stock or staggered payments over a period of time, should be at least the estimated value of the entire current market size for fumed silica. More so because this is the only method of producing GREEN fumed silica, it's unheard of
5. I would not mind a fair buyout offer, because that would give HPQ Silicon AND Pyrogenesis the necessary funds to accelerate and pursue the other much bigger market size and promising business lines for years to come. Moreover, some funds can be used for an NCIB, which will positively affect the share price
6. Even after a potential buyout, Pyrogenesis will most likely still be the one constructing the reactors or at least the torches, as the key component of the FSRs. They will also provide service and parts