Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Quarterhill Inc T.QTRH

Alternate Symbol(s): T.QTRH.DB | QTRHF

Quarterhill Inc. is a Canada-based company, which is engaged in providing of tolling and enforcement solutions in the intelligent transportation system (ITS) industry. The Company is focused on the acquisition, management and growth of companies that provide integrated, tolling and mobility systems and solutions to the ITS industry as well as its adjacent markets. The Company’s solutions... see more

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Quarterhill Inc > Stepping out on a limb

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Post by cabbieJBJ on Mar 27, 2024 1:07pm

Stepping out on a limb

With the anaysts analyses published, I thought it might be valuable to also share my assumptions and projections for 2024/2025. The analysts are understandably conservative, as they should be, leaving room for additional data points and possible upgrades throughout the year.I'm more bullish, but will look at progress after Q2.

My projections are largely in line with the analysts except for revenue. The average revenue growth of the three analysts covering QTRH is +7.8% Y/Y for 2024 and +11.5% in 2025. This seems somewhat at odds with both management's sentiment on the Q4 call and 2023's performance of +22% on revenue and an expanding backlog. I'm projecting +18% Y/Y in 2024 and +25% Y/Y in 2025. I can do that because I don't need to consider upgrades/downgrades and have a reputaion, at least on this board, of being bullish on QTRH.

I use a 12x mutiple, which equates to a $4.00 target.

POVs and comments invited.

C$000,000s	Revenue	Gross Profit	Op-Ex	EBITDA
Analysts
2023	$194	$41	$39	$3
2024	$209	$58	$42	$14
2025	$233	$70	$45	$25

Cabbie
2023	$194	$41	$39	$3
2024	$230	$65	$47	$18
2025	$288	$88	$50	$38

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Comment by Homework on Mar 27, 2024 8:54pm

Sorry Cabbie .................I'm ok with your 2024-2025 revenue and profit projections ,but not your PE of 12.................If Rev and profit grow at over 20% then the PE will gravitate to at least 30.......... Stock price...........8.00-10.00...$$$$$$......at least for a while untill the Rev and profit grow at a slower pace.......So buckle and get ready to fade it if those numbers are ...more

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Comment by cabbieJBJ on Mar 27, 2024 9:40pm

Possibly Homework. Got my hearing aids in and 5-points harness on.

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Comment by Socrates1 on Mar 28, 2024 7:47am

We tend to dream a lot..........All those forward looking statements and dreams that got us to $1.12 because of Murphy's law........... just saying........... The best we can do is "trust" the people who actually did build a billion dolar co. before and liked QTRH potential enough to take it over and prehaps try it again............Pleaso do...... we are all ears........

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