Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Inflation - Who Cares

[Experienced]

Right now in the US, the "official" inflation rate is now 8.6%.  In the media, they say that this is worst that it has been for 40 years (ie 1982).  What the media doesn't tell you is that the way inflation is calculated has changed over the years in a way to reduce the measured inflation. So we are comparing the proverbial apples to oranges.

Why should we care?

The inflation rate in the early 1980s was sufficient to cause a recession and a significant drop in the stock market.  If we actually used the same methodolgy to calculate inflation today, the rate today would be in the double digits and so the situation today is worse than it was back then.

To make matters worse, in the early 1980s the US had a competent Presidential Administration and a competent Chair of the Federal Reserve with a backbone.  Today we have neither.  If we go around the World we see the same story.

So when you put this together, the table is set for a recession and a significant decline in stock prices. It is just a matter of time before it happens.

As Rockfeller said in response to a question in the early 1900s - "Don't fight the tape".  The corollary to this is take advantage of it.  Since I made my first investment in 1969, I have lived through the commodity price crash in the early 1970, the oil embargo in 1979, the crash in 1987, the collpase of the tech bubble in 2000 and the Great Recession of 2008 to name some of the historical events.  I am still on my feet and one of the primary reasons for this is that I anticipated events and more importantly took steps to protect my assets and had the resources (money) to buy things on sale after things calmed down.  I am doing that again now.

My best advice to those who care to read my posts is to do the same.  One thing I have learned over the years is that the market at times can be quite brutal and doesn't take any prisoners.

[NPCexe]

Been out for a few weeks now. This might be the beginning of the crash.

[MigraineCall]

I fully expect the general market to crash. There are very few safe havens. I hold a heavy holding of SQQQ, the leveraged bear market fo rteh Nasdaq. It has almost doubled. Crypto, gold, and admittedly even oil to an extent will take a hit as the finest stocks get sold off to cover losses elsewhere. That being said, I havn't had a lot of time to be able to trade agressively as I had

[Davesnothere]

Appreciate your sharing Migraine, my bag fluctuates roughly 300k in a good or bad oil month, and obviously that has been trending upwards for about a year now.  I see a good basis for holding oil since it is in demand and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. No easy way for WTI to fall meaningfully any time soon. In less than 2 months we will see game-changing returns to

[thegreattimario]

Haha ya the us did not have a competent presidential administration in 1980. They had a group of idiots just as they do now. Funny how the brain let's one forget.

[pooltec]

I'm paying for this microphone!