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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Alternate Symbol(s):  SU

Suncor Energy Inc. is a Canada-based integrated energy company. The Company's segments include Oil Sands, Exploration and Production (E&P), and Refining and Marketing. Its operations include oil sands development, production and upgrading; offshore oil production; petroleum refining in Canada and the United States; and the Company’s Petro-Canada retail and wholesale distribution networks... see more

TSX:SU - Post Discussion

Suncor Energy Inc > Will it be enough......?
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Post by mrmomo on May 09, 2023 8:23am

Will it be enough......?

To save Suncor's stock today? I don't know......

As most of you know by now, it's earnings release day for Suncor today. Actually it was yesterday night at 8PM Eastern time lol.....and it's usually never a good thing to release earnings that late no matter where you live. But today is the day we see if the market LIKES what they hear & see from Suncor. I'm not a s/h here, only here purely for curiousity & general interests as Suncor is a bellwether of sorts for the enitre Canadian space and does provide some insights into the direction of the sector. But there are many that are SU s/h here and would be wise to follow what Suncor is doing & saying.

Taking a quick look at their earnings, briefly, it looks like they reported $1.36 and consensus was $1.32. I believe this was ALL in Canaidan bucks, but don't quote me on this as i cannot confirn that to be the case. If it is, then Sucor has satisfied the analyst's estimates, if the estimate was in us dollars, then it's a miss. Also, the accointing might play a facor here as these were quoted as stated below....

"On an adjusted basis, Suncor says its operating earnings for the first quarter were $1.81 billion, or $1.36 per common share, a 34-per-cent decrease year-over-year."

.........As i'm not sure if the estimates were on a "adjusted" basis or not. Whatever the case, i guess we will find out soon. My guess...... whatever happens today will depend on a slew of factors such as the price of WTI, the careful srcuntinization & parsing of Suncor's Q1 numbers, the continued fallout & effects of the Total/Suncor transaction, the statements made in CC by mgmt and also the impact & status of the Albertan brush fires. So it's a pretty loaded day indeed for Suncor and its holders.

But if i were to take a wild guess here, i'd say with oil prices being flat, the pressure of the Total-Suncor deal still in the air, with the added impact & uncertainty of the wild fires in Alberta should provide enough selling pressure to at least keep the stock from rising to any degree. I think the difference here, whether it a good or bad day for Suncor s/h, will be HOW investors view Q1 numbers & what Suncor mgmt say in the CC. In my opnion, the Q1 figures look ok but nothing to get to too excited about. So i'm personally expecting a down day, with the severity of that down draft depending on the severity of ALL the factors i listed above. So this could as good as a flat day for Suncor's stock to it "maybe" hitting a new 52 week low.

One thing is certain though......for a s/h, it will be a nail biting, hair pulling roller coaster ride right until the day ConocoP makes a final decision on Surmont ALONG with Suncor's subsequent reaction and if they have a PLAN B or not if things don't go their way..........

So GL to all Suncor holders.......it should be fun ride.........

GLTA
Comment by Experienced on May 09, 2023 8:55am
Yes I agree that SU has more balls in the air than most companies right now. You identified the big dererminants, oil prices and what COP decides to do along with SU's reaction. As for the financial results, I don't think any of that is a big surprise to The Street as SU's FCF etc are pretty easy to figure out and so that is probably already baked into the pie. That said, since oil ...more  
Comment by mrmomo on May 09, 2023 9:16am
Yep.....that's a pretty fair assessment Experienced and this story still has much more to play out beyond today's earnings. As for Q1 & whether they are "baked in already" .....we shall see. I think the reaction to earnings, whether baked in or not, also depends on CC. I personally didn't see ANY surprises in there, but then again, my assessment was superficial and i didn ...more  
Comment by pooltec on May 09, 2023 9:59am
With gold no question easy to manipulate the paper market.  Gold only consumed with weddings and hording.  Oil is used everywhere and destroyed not melted down into a gold bar to be made into rings again.  Maybe manipulated for a short while until the tanker shipment is used up.  Supply and demand will govern eventually price of oil.
Comment by matt2018 on May 09, 2023 8:58am
Momo..... why so fixated on a one day stock performance of a company (SU or other)? Unless there was some major event/announcement (like the sale of the company). I don't believe anyone here has a 24hr time horizon on this investment. Do you check on the daily value of what your house is worth?
Comment by Torontojay on May 09, 2023 9:13am
Good point Matt. Nobody checks to see how much their art piece hung up on a wall is worth. In reality, some of these family heirlooms can be worth a fortune but it goes unnoticed. They don't buy and sell art pieces/furniture like they do stocks but over a generation they can outperform inflation much like gold always has.  Passive investing works most of the time but this point in the ...more  
Comment by lifeisgood1010 on May 09, 2023 9:18am
Right on Matt and Experienced. You don't invest in a company for it's daily fluctuations unless you are a day trader. I was looking at the results and doing back of the envelope calculations In CDN tems crack spread were about 25% higher in Q1 2023 than what they were in Q1 2022. All thing been equals, the hit to earnings was about 47 cents/ shares in Q1 2023 because of the Commerce ...more  
Comment by mrmomo on May 09, 2023 9:27am
Mr. Matt....First i don't own the stock, i think i've stated that clearly numerous times. I'm only here purely for indirect interests & discussion on other matters but stull relatable to SU. Second, i totally understand your frustrations and do sympathize, but 'm barely here "daily" as you've inaccurately mentioned, not by a long shot. Today is an important day ...more  
Comment by matt2018 on May 09, 2023 9:36am
No frustrations here Momo..... But I do agree with your last paragraph.