Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Reprieve for ICE vehicle industry good news for SU

[Obscure1]

I have extended the timing of my expectation of the demise of SU

Mary Barra, the CEO of GM has once again pulled the rug out from under the feet of her investors.  She has been lying to shareholders for years and it mystifies me how she isn't being charged and put in jail.  It just goes to show how toothless the SEC really is as it is powerless to hold the leaders of public companies responsible for misleading shareholders.  Billions of dollars get transferred due to misleading statements made by people like Barra who somehow manages to survive on her annual $29 million compensation package. 

Barra indicated last fall that GM would be able to raise its annual EV production rate to 1 million vehicles per year in 2025.  So far this year, GM has produced 56,000 EV's but only 7,000 of those vehicles were built on their Ultium platform.  GM is discontinuing its Bolt this year which makes up the lion's share of its EV sales.  On Tuesday, Barra announced that all the EV vehicles that they had planned to introduce this year and in 2024 (including the Silverado and Sierra) were being shelved until late 2025.  That announcement pretty much takes GM out of the EV game until 2027 or 2028 in terms of producing any significant volume of EV's

Meanwhile, Ford has announced the cancellation of a $3.4 billion battery plant.  No batteries, no EV's.  Ford is still losing about $40,000 for every EV that it makes and the company is already faced with ugly math no matter where the UAW negotiations end up. 

The USA has remained steadfast in keeping Chinese automakers out of America.  Chinese automakers are currently destroying the European automakers and the US doesn't want that to happen.  That leaves Tesla and the Korean and Japanese automakers as the only real producers for the USA in the next five years.  The Japanese automakers are ten years behind so their impact will be nominal.  The Korean automaker Hyudai/Kia will realistically be the only company that will be able to produce any significant volume of EV's for the US market other than Tesla

All of this is good news for SU as the window has probably extended another 5 years.  If Trump manages to stay out of jail and the Republicans can somehow pull off a miracle in 2024, the adoption of EV's will likely take even longer.  The transition to EV's is going to happen because of the math, but the timing seems further out now.

[meritmat]

That was always a given.  Technology has to catch up.   Maybe in a decade 

[Experienced]

Nice analysis my friend..... I agree with your views on Hyundai as they are building a 300K EV plant in the USA which will be in production in 1H 2025 I'm not sure I agree with your view about Japanese producers...if Toyota meets their current plan about solid state batteries then they won't be far behind

[mrbb]

batnan and robin 1 2 combo on EV.  you straightened out robin good. 

[Experienced]

lol...good one Meanwhile...back at the ranch.....SU is trading at about the same SP it was 5 1/2 years ago. Great LT investment I guess? If you played the ST swings as I have posted while the transition is going on you couda made some serious change like Migraine. Each to their own I guess.  But as I have posted many times the easy money is going with businesses with the wind at their

[mrbb]

5,5 yrs ago? SU wasn't in my radar back then. Got into SU in 2021, and added again in june 2023 below 38 At least i got some skin in the game to make discussion on this board unlike some here. I hold way more other oil stocks but whole less frequent on those board. 

[mrbb]

i'm curious why you partake on this board with mostly battery/EV and geopolitical discussion but afraid to make useful or specific oil related outlook forecase based on you 'vast' past 'Experience' in the finance, trading discipline and political view?  Your only forecast i've seen from you is doom and gloom is coming, good luck to all. At least robin (obscure1

[integrity11]

Experience why don't you just take your vast knowledge and experience to another board.I think posters would be ok with u on this board if you were not negative on SU and all Canadian oil producers. There is a reason you rarely get a thumbs up on this board. Most posters know you love to boast about your great knowledge about pretty much anything (lol even biking and vacations) and

[vr6loco]

Don't know what the big deal is, I certainly value everyone's posts, including Experienced an Obscure1. Ignor button is a option. I don't necessarily agree with everything they say. They both traded in and out of SU. From my perspective, I've owned a Tesla for the last 6 plus years, great car for my needs, and perhaps not for many others. I kinda hope it stays that way, as I'm

[mrbb]

no doubt EV owners are enjoying the current lax laws and cost that haven't caught up to EV, yet. I think the best advantages now are having an ebike.  They don't need to buy license, insurance, exempt from street legality compliance and cheap the charge up. They can ride on roads,sidewalk walking trailing, school ground, concrete stairways, scot free but illegal for licensedl

[mrbb]

you said SU is dead meat many times here before, now u says SU will live 5 years longer due to someone else incompetency.  You call for jail time for mary barra but not for yourself.  Double standard i see here.