Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Suncor 3rd Q numbers guess

[Clemxb7]

I think Suncor just had a sneekily good 3rd quarter:

Revenues: $14,750 up ~20% Q/Q
AFFO= $4,000 up ~50% Q/Q
Net Debt = $13,000 down ~9% Q/Q
Earnings = Expected $1.30/share  likely: over $1.75/share

I did look at previous quarters to make these guesses Earnings are always subject to random one time charges.

[Marty47]

They beat estimates in the last 4 quarters by just a bit , if we have another beat by a large margin we will be at 50$ + , also keep in mind the trans-mountain will kick in the second quarter 2024 , the canadien crude will get a boost in price for sure , by summer time we should be at 60$ plus on the stock if not 65$ if the was expend ....

[Experienced]

Marty....with all due respect.... The valuation metrics for SU have been established for a very long time.  For analysts on The Street, calculation of SU earnings isn't that hard and in fact many here with much less training and experience have pretty much nailed the number long before a Q report comes out. Your suggestion of a 50% increase in the SP is nothing short of a pipe dream

[Marty47]

well last year the stock hit 53$ , its only short of 60$ , my assumption is base on escalation in the Middle East , this won't stop soon , so let see , but we will hit 50$ before the end of the year ! again we will see about the catalysts , 1-trudeau gone is one 2- the trans-mountain 3- escalation in the Middle East 4-oil over 90$ I first half 2024 .....let's hit 50$ first and 60$ is not

[Experienced]

Hope it works out for you Matt...

[vr6loco]

What is the price prediction for Suncor? "); display: inline-block; height: 24px; width: 24px; transform: rotateZ(-180deg);">     The average price target for Suncor Energy is C$56.00. This is based on 8 Wall Streets Analysts 12-month price targets, issued in the past 3 months. The highest analyst price target is C$74.00

[integrity11]

Marty (not sure where Matt came from), I think your numbers look very reasonable. For your information I posted on around August 8 approximately 1 week before Q2 results were to be released that I had purchased more SU shares at I believe $41.25. Experience responded to my post saying the only way SU share price would increase would be with a dividend increase. Well here we are 3 months later

[Experienced]

Marty.....the 53 dollar SP occured with a Brent price of 115 a barrel. So yeah, if you want to bet the farm on an Iranian oil embargo, go for it.  Me? I will put my money on things that are more likely to happen but hey each to their own and it is your own hard earned money that you gambling with that we will have WWIII and skyrocketing oil prices.   Oil prices at that level will for

[Lawisfun]

Suncor has bought and cancelled ~8% of total shares outstanding since the time share price was at $53.  That is an important detail to acknowledge. 

[integrity11]

Yes Lawisfun that is true, but Experience is also ignoring the fact that total U/S production was ~720,000 BOE/d in June of 2022 when SU share price was ~$52.80. With 100% of Ft Hills SU production will be soon (if not already - April 1,2023) 800,000 BOE/d which is approximately 11% more production. In my opinion increased production should equate to a higher share price.

[Experienced]

Lawisfun......agreed

[integrity11]

Haven't had a chance to check on debt back in June compared to current but of course that is a factor in share price. With the Fort Hills purchase I suspect it may be higher now?

[Marty47]

Bought 5000 shares at 20$ so for Im doing pretty good , dividend is nice but I plan selling at 60$ 

[integrity11]

Marty imo we only need oil to stabilize at around $80 for Suncor to climb to $53. I dont have allegiance to any stock (except for maybe TOU in a taxable account) so will likely sell when it reaches $53, but buy back during weakness. I have done that frequently with CNQ this year. I do believe SU will reach $60 with continued $80 plus oil price as SU continues to paydown debt, buyback shares and

[Marty47]

And with the new ceo selling the renewable portfolio and focusing on core oil sands it's a no brainer