Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Macro economic question?

[pooltec]

Are the interest rate hikes over and is time to buy stocks again? Or will the housing bubble burst in Canada next year and is it game over?

[Experienced]

pooltec - great question My planning assumption/base case is that the interest rate hikes in Canada are done and in the US there could be another 25 basis point rise. The question then becomes - "When will they go down?" Driven by multi trillion dollar annual budgetary deficits in the US, I  don't see interest rates falling for at least a year and probably longer unless we

[pooltec]

Thank you Experience.  I thought you would be the one to answer.  I asked this because some of my old favourites are on the comeback.  Ie. DFN and LBS.  I held back on purchase because they hold the banks and there is no way they can not take a hit with all the mortgages that are due next year.  I could be wrong.  Libs are flooding the country with immigrants to keep

[Experienced]

pooltec....I still hold hold banks in portfolio as long term holds and as a dividend play although I have lightened up my positions in banks as part of my overall asset allocation stance.  That said, once my scenario regarding a potential recession has passed, I will buy back in and in the long run I see the banking sector as a prime beneficiary of AI in terms of reducing their costs and my

[pooltec]

My eye is on DFN, it is moving back up to nav and could pop to 6 bucks.  Just a buy and sell for capital gains not divys.  Worry is if this weeks gains in the dow and tsx for real or not only a bull trap?

[Experienced]

pooltec....DFN is one to watch.  Hard to say whether there is enough juice in the market to get the NAV over 15 for it to pay out this month.  If there is then it could go into the mid 5s for a profitable trade....not sure about 6 a share though. I  have done a number of  profitable roundtrips on LCS over the past few months.  I view the split shares as short term trades

[pooltec]

Been kicking my self for 2 weeks.  DFN got down to the 3's was easy money.  Had COVID guess my mind was froozen.  

[Torontojay]

It's a bull trap.  The stock market will go lower when interest rate cuts begin to happen contrary to what many people think. 

[Experienced]

Really depends on which market you are talking about. Here's my take.... US Market Overall I see a shallow recession.  The excessive spending by Biden is baked in and this provides a huge stimulus to the US economy and for intents and purposes has swamped what the Fed is doing with interest rates.  The heavy annual borrowing to finance this stimulus (2 trillion a year growing to 3

[Experienced]

Yep.....split shares to me are trading vehicles...the high yield is a red herring. As I menioned before, I have made several very profitable roundtrips on LCS over the past few months.  DFN looks interesting but given my base case projection, I am more cautious about split shares primarily due to the leverage which can work against you .   That said, I do have it on my watch list and