Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Interesting Graph Regarding Gasoline Consumption

[nukester]

I stole this graph from Art Berman on Twitter:
Art Berman (for those that are not familiar with him) is essentially a radical leftist that found himself working as a petroleum geologist. He is a living contradiction, he completely believes mankind is destroying the earth from burning fossil fuels, but chooses to make his living in the field.  When he is not bashing Trump or some other conservative figure or paradigm, he posts actual honest data that supports an energy expansion as opposed to energy transition. The irony of Berman, is he espouses we use less energy in the future to save the planet. No energy transition for him, just reduction, gloom and doom.

Snarking on Berman aside, the graph suggests we are in the middle of  an energy expansion. In other words, EV's are not going to hurt oil consumption or Suncor.
Counter intuitive to some, but worthy of consideration none the less IMO.

https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1741227847904080182

[Experienced]

nukster....nice post While there are many that could argue with his projection as underestimating the impact of EVs on gasline consumption in the future, for argument's sake let's assume that Berman's forecast is what happens. As an investor - what are the implications? 1...it likely means that there will be a market for the oil produced by SU for the foreseable future 2...overall

[nukester]

Experienced, You routinely gloss over the most important aspect of the debate, namely reservoir depletion. In your own words: "In this scenario, the SP of SU is unlikely to even go up at the rate of inflation unless there is a sharp decline in world oil production." Oil demand is increasing globally, despite the increase in EV's on the road today. Lets say that dynamic fades and

[Experienced]

Nukester....lots I could say about your post but I will be brief.. One thing I will say though is that the "forked tongue" reference was totally unnecessary and while I respect your posts, doing this dimished my opinion of you. As for glossing over reservoir depletion, in your highlighted quote from my post, I clearly acknowledged that this was a possibility - not exactly sluffing it

[nukester]

Experienced, 1. "Forked tongue" comment was followed by a smiley face.  A smiley face is the universal symbol of good will.  Since you seem like  a nice guy, I will give you two smiley faces next time I pick on you :-) :-) 2. Regarding the chart, the number of fossil fuel vehicles clearly rises from 2024 to 2030.  Yes, the rise is subtle, but very real. 

[Experienced]

Nukster....sorry....missed the smiley face Regarding depletion, I suppose you have a point.I guess when I look at the recent discovery of the 4th largest oil deposit off the coast of Guyana and being of the generation when the Canadian Government said in 1973 that we had 6 years of oil left in Canada, forgive me if I am a tad cynical about oil depletion.

[nukester]

Don't blame you for being cynical on depletion, but the truth is we have all benefited from cheap money and improved oil extraction  technology the last decade approx. Most investors and even prominent industry bankers back in early 2000 or so (Google Matt Simmons, "Twilight in the Desert" ) missed the effect of fracking and directional drilling would have on future production.

[meritmat]

yes theres depletion but also remember theres countrys with massives reserves that have not been brought to the market.  Venezuela comes to mind.  Heck theres even a bunch of oil sands project that could come on if the right goverment gets in.

[matt2018]

There are reasons why Venez reserves will stay in the ground.  Only ones that are there now are recouping some of their losses and then they are out. You would have to be quite dumb to go back in there to invest billions$ for the long term. Why do you think they have their eyes on those Guyana assets? As for future  Cdn Oil Sands projects (even when you get a favorable gov't) you

[meritmat]

Need a change in goverment for Vez to get back in.  Sadly your looking at decades to bring it all back on but I cant see the largest reserve in the world not being devoloped. The only reason I pointed out the oilsands is once you get them built, you have decades of low cost production.

[mrbb]

venezuela oil reserves are mostly extra heavy oil varieties, it require lots of capex, high opex, importing diluent and attracting human expertise to get it out, transport it and upgrade it. It will be a long while before all these components can be in place at the same time for Venezuela production has much impact on world oil supply

[mrbb]

well, that make companies with developed reserves and infrastructure worth something huh?

[Experienced]

nukster...valid points - great discussion!! This is the crux of the problem and a key to decision-making - demand destruction vs supply destruction.  In terms of your points about existing known reservoirs and depletion rates vs demand, the reality is that world oil consumption has been relatively flat for the past 5 years or so (see the link below). If Obscure is right about the "S

[vr6loco]

Experienced, you mentioned the last five years of demand has been essentially flat. True, but even in that article it projects demand to increase to 110 million by 2045. Depending on the variables, this may be very conservative.  As I mentioned before, there is still a huge population of the world without toilets today, as these same populations will eventually prosper and use some of the

[Experienced]

vr6...yes but that is essentially an increase of 10 million per day over a 20 year period Anyway, we could beat this horse to death but each to their own as they say.  The key message is not whether oil will be dead in 20 years but between now and then are there other businesses which have greater potential to return higher returns with less risk.  I believe that there are many and if

[mrbb]

your thesis is based on your age and situation. Your belief in EV revolution is not backed by investment in any EV or battery sector but stayed with ultra conservative bond, preferred shares in oil/gas pipeline. You just talk and no walk. Yes you mentioned that you had invested in this 'private' fund that manage energy flow, where those energy mostly likely derived from oil/gas, fossil

[mrbb]

last check, i still see people around the world employing ancient techniques of burning wood, hay, cow dung, coal for heat and cooking. Walking is still very popular these days around the world. I doubt EV and li ion battery would displaces these practices in my life time.  Given gasoline is still far superior to lithium battery in term of energy density by weight and by volume, i think

[mrbb]

i see that you are not into calligraphy.  Let me tell you that there are many ways to draw a 'S' curve.  To equate  EV's S curve  to smartphone, pc, internet, you're fooling yourself or over rating your calligraphy ability.