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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd T.SUE.WT

TSX:SUE.WT - Post Discussion

Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd > SUE-Raymond James
View:
Post by jackyl on Apr 05, 2011 1:17pm

SUE-Raymond James

RAYMOND JAMES


SUE: Updating Our DCF to Reflect Revised Feasibility Study Targets
Event
We are updating our model to reflect the company’s targets for an upcoming feasibility study of Shahuindo (expected in calendar 3Q11). We are also taking this opportunity to update our model with the fiscal 3Q11 financial statements and upto-date
share structure (taking into
account recently
exercised warrants).

Action
We continue to recommend purchasing shares of Sulliden on our expectations for near-term resource expansion and rapid development (de-risking) of its 100%owned
Shahuindo project in northwest Peru.

Analysis
? Recent Share Price Weakness. SUE’s share price has come under some pressure recently as a large numbers of warrants are set to expire April 23
and May 8, 2011 and uncertainty over the outcome of the Peruvian General Elections (being held April 10) has raised concerns over the direction of the country’s geo-political policies. In the latest Ipsos Apoyo, Humala (a leftist) was statistically tied with Toledo at roughly 20%. As there is no clear front-runner with over 50% of the vote, the election is likely to end in a run-off prompting a second vote to be held on June 5 between the top two candidates.

? Changes to Our Model. We are revising certain modeled assumptions to better reflect Sulliden’s targets and our own expectations for an upcoming feasibility study on the project. In short, we are pushing back the start date to 3Q13 (from 3Q12), increasing throughput to 30,000 tpd (from 22,000 tpd), lowering the strip ratio to 0.60 (from 1.48) and increasing capex to $195 mln (from $162 mln). See the following page for further details on our changes.

? Going Forward. Our positive outlook for SUE remains intact and we view any recent share price weakness as an opportunity to further add to positions ahead of the updated resource estimate expected in late May. With over $45 mln in cash, we believe SUE is well financed to carry out its aggressive 70,000 m drill program and feasibility study.

Valuation
We are maintaining our Strong Buy rating but lowering our target to $3.20 (from $3.30). Our $3.20 target price is based on a cash-adjusted 1.2x P/NAV multiple applied to our NAVPS estimate of C$2.76 (from $2.87). Our lower NAVPS estimate reflects recent changes to our model and our 1.2x multiple reflects our view of Sulliden’s potential for near-term resource expansion and low-cost heap leach operations.
EPS 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Revenues NAVPS Jul Oct Jan Apr Year (mln)
2009A NA NA NA NA NA NA 2010A 0.00 (0.02) (0.03) (0.01) (0.06) 0 NA
Old 2011E (0.01)A (0.01)A (0.01) (0.01) (0.03) 0 2.87 New 2011E (0.01) (0.01) (0.03) (0.01) (0.06) 0 2.76
Source: Raymond James Ltd., Thomson One

Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 5 and Analyst Certification on page 6.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

Rating & Target Strong Buy 1
Target Price (6-12 months): Old: C$3.30 New: C$3.20
Current Price ( Apr-01-11 ) C$1.81
Total Return to Target 77%

52-Week Range C$2.78 - C
.50
Market Data Market Capitalization (mln) C$373
Current Net Debt (mln) -C$49
Enterprise Value (mil.) C$324
Shares Outstanding (mln, f.d.) 228.4
Average Daily Volume (000s) 1,217
Dividend/Yield C
.00/0.0% Key Financial Metrics 2009A 2010A 2011E
P/E 2009A 2010E 2011E
NA nm nm
CFPS 2009A 2010A 2011E
Old NA C$(0.04) C$(0.01)
New NA C$(0.04) C$(0.01)
Working Capital (mln) Old NA C$13.2 C$44.8
New NA C$13.2 C$47.8
Capex (mln) Old NA C$6.0 C$5.3
New NA C$6.0 C$11.9
Cash Costs (US$/oz) Old NA US
US

New NA US
US

Gold Production ('000 oz) Old NA 0.0 0.0
New NA 0.0 0.0 P/NAV (2011E) 0.7x
Total Resource 1.34
Valuation 175
Company Description Sulliden is a gold development and exploration company focused on its 100%-owned Shahuindo project in northern Peru.

Canada Research | Page 2 of 9 Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd.
Further Details on Changes to Our Model
? Pushing Back Start Date. We are pushing back our start date for Shahuindo to calendar 2Q13 (from 2Q12) to reflect the delay of an updated resource estimate (now expected May-2011) and feasibility study (now expected calendar 3Q11). The company opted to postpone the release of both reports until after the Peruvian elections in order to avoid making the project a topic of political debate.
? Capital Requirements. We are increasing our capital cost estimate to US$162 mln (from US$127 mln) to better reflect SUE’s new feasibility study target of US$150 mln – US$180 mln. Recall, the Shahuindo PEA had an estimated capex of US$89 mln.
? Throughput Rate. We are increasing our throughput rate to 30,000 tpd (from 22,000 tpd), which we believe better reflects the optimal mining rate and subsequent mine life (10 years) for a deposit of Shahuindo’s size. We now forecast annual production of ~185,000 ounces AuEq (from ~136,000 ounces AuEq).
? Lowering Strip Ratio. Recent drilling has demonstrated that a large amount of material that was previously recorded as waste can now be mined as ore (albeit at a lower grade than our current model). We are lowering our average strip ratio to 0.60 (from 1.48) and adjusting our modeled resource to reflect the change. We now model 100.0 mln tonnes grading 0.65 g/t or 2.08 mln ounces (from 93.0 mln tonnes grading 0.69 g/t or 2.05 mln ounces). Our model now generates LOM total cash costs of US$343/oz (from US$318/oz).
Exhibit 1: Shahuindo DCF Summary
Economic Parameters
Unit
New Old
LT Gold Price US$/oz 1100 1100
LT Silver Price US$/oz 17.00 17.00
Exchange Rate US$/C$ 1.00 1.00
Tax Rate % 30% 31%
Modeled Resource
Tonnes mln 100.0 93.0
Gold Grade g/t 0.65 0.69
Silver Grade g/t 13.74 13.55
Contained Gold Moz 2.08 2.05
Contained Silver Moz 44.2 40.5
Strip Ratio w:o 0.60 1.48
Operational Summary
Start Date (calendar year) 2Q13E 2Q12E
Average Mining Rate tpd 30,000 22,000
Mine Life yrs 10 13
Gold Recovery % 80% 80%
Silver Recovery % 15% 15%
Production AuEq (LOM avg) koz 184.9 135.7
Mining Cost US$/t 1.20 1.20
Processing Cost US$/t 2.47 2.47
G&A Cost US$/t 0.92 0.92
LOM Cash Costs US$/oz 343 318
Development Capital US$mln 162.3 127.3
Sustaining Captial US$mln 33.1 35.1
Total Capex US$mln 195.3 162.4
Valuation
Discount Rate % 5% 5%
Pre-tax NPV US$mln $826.7 $862.1
Post-tax NPV C$mln $577.0 $593.3
Source: Raymond James Ltd.

Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd. Canada Research | Page 3 of 9
Details on Share Structure
SUE’s share price has come under some pressure recently as a large numbers of warrants are set to expire April 23

and May 8, 2011 (see Exhibit 2). We estimate that SUE has 206.2 mln basic shares, 16.4 mln options and 5.8 mln warrants outstanding as of Mar-31-11. We also note that roughly 3.4 mln warrants have been exercised at a price of
.80 since Jan-31-11. Our cash and working capital estimates below reflect the recently exercised warrants (see Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 2: Option and Warrants (as of Mar-31-11)
Options
Price Value Exp Date
1,765,000 0.80 1,412,000 28-Oct-11
50,000 0.50 25,000 18-Dec-11
250,000 0.50 125,000 13-Dec-12
20,000 0.50 10,000 5-Apr-13
4,550,000 0.65 2,957,500 25-Mar-14
2,590,000 0.80 2,072,000 18-Nov-14
200,000 0.81 162,000 21-Nov-14
100,000 1.00 100,000 21-Dec-11
100,000 0.80 80,000 22-Jan-15
200,000 0.70 140,000 24-Feb-15
3,050,000 0.73 2,226,500 22-Aug-15
105,000 1.50 157,500 7-Nov-15
3,140,000 1.51 4,741,400 18-Nov-15
80,000 2.32 185,600 19-Jan-16
50,000 2.28 114,000 19-Jan-16
150,000 2.35 352,500 26-Jan-16
16,400,000 14,861,000
Warrants
Price Value Exp Date
4,819,027 0.80 3,855,222 23-Apr-11
833,504 0.80 666,803 8-May-11
99,904 0.65 64,938 8-May-11
5,752,435 4,586,962
Source: Sulliden Gold Corp., Raymond James Ltd.
Exhibit 3: SUE Capital Structure (as of Mar-31-11)
Item Unit Value
Capital Structure
Shares Outstanding mln sh. 206.3
Option and Warrants mln sh. 22.2
Fully diluted Shares Outstanding mln sh. 228.4
Balance Sheet
Cash C$mln 48.9
Working Capital C$mln 47.5
LT Debt C$mln 0.0
Source: Sulliden Gold Corp., Raymond James Ltd.




Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 4 of 9 Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd.
Appendix 1: Sulliden Gold Summary Sheet
Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd.
RAYMOND JAMES RESEARCH
Rating: Strong Buy 1 SUE-T Analyst: Gary Baschuk 416.777.7098
6-12 Mth Target C$ 3.20 NAV $2.76 Associate: Graham Morrison 416.777.7189
Projected Return: 76.8% YR-END: Apr-30
Reporting Currency: CAD
Investment Thesis:
Market Statistics
Sulliden is a rapidly growing gold exploration and development company focused on its Share Price C
$ 1.81 Shares Basic (mln) 206.3
100% owned Shahuindo project located in northwestern Peru. We expect positive results
52 Wee
k High/Low 2.78-0.5 Shares Fully Diluted (mln) 228.4
from the 2010 drill program to expand resources improving the economics for a low cost Market Cap. (mln) $373 Adj. Shares used in NAV calc (mln) 279.5
heap leach mining operation. Enterprise Value (mln) $324 Avg Daily Volume: 1,072,700
Key Attributes:
Total model'd oz in DCF (mln) 1671.3
-Sulliden has an attractive valuation compared to peers. Dividend nm
-We ex
pect the positive drill results from 2010 to expand the new resource estimation
Div Yield % nm
-The "at surface" oxide de
posit is expected to be a low cost operation
-Proven mana
gement team of mine builders
Financia
l Metrics F2008A F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E
Key Concerns:
Cash & Equivalents (mln) 0.15 0.13 17.84 49.18 41.69
-Completion of acquisition of surface rights over the mine area Working capital (mln) 1.65 (5.35) 13.21 47.77 40.27
-Ac
quisition of all permits necessary for construction of the mine
Current ratio (x) 4.25 0.54 3.69 29.86 25.34
L-term debt (mln) 0.00 3.51 0.00 0.00 0.00
Common equity (mln) 48.46 57.70 88.70 142.52 135.03
Reserves & Resources Profile Price
/book (x) 2.73 2.65 2.50 2.37 3.16
Tonnes Au g
/t Ag g/tGold Ozs Silver Ozs LTD/(LTD + Equity) 0.000 0.057 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indicated ROE (%) (0.088) (0.044) -8.4% -6.8% -7.2%
Oxide 44,500,000 0.58 13.20 830,000 18,800,000 ROIC
(0.087) (0.027) -6.3% -5.9% -6.2%
Mixed 2,000,000 0.87 39.70 60,000 2,600,000
Sulphides 5,300,000 0.93 49.60 160,000 8,400,000
Tota
l 51,800,000 0.63 17.89 1,050,000 29,800,000 Earnings/Cash Flow F2008A F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E
RJ Gold Forecast US
$/oz 873 973 1,046 1,314 1,438
Inferred Revenue ($mln) 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.00
Oxide 17,600,000 0.49 6.00 280,000 3,400,000 Corporate EBITDA ($mln) (4.25) (2.57) (4.43) (9.68) (9.76)
Mixed 0 0.00 0.00 0 0 EBITDA Margin (46.34) (45.17) (140.72) (399.43) 0.00
Sulphides 300,000 1.12 14.10 10,000 100,000 EV
/EBITDA nm nm nm nm nm
Total 17,900,000 0.50 6.08 290,000 3,500,000 Corporate EBIT ($mln) (4.25) (2.57) (4.43) (9.68) (9.76)
Net Earnings ($mln) - adjusted (4.25) (2.57) (7.41) (9.69) (9.76)
Total Inventory
Oxide 62,100,000 0.56 11.12 1,110,000 22,200,000 EPS ($) - adjusted (0.06) (0.03) (0.06) (0.06) (0.04)
Mixed 2,000,000 0.93 40.43 60,000 2,600,000 P/E (x) nm nm nm nm nm
Sulphides 5,600,000 0.94 47.21 170,000 8,500,000 Cash flow Operations (mln) (1.11) (0.19) (4.73) (2.55) (9.76)
Total 69,700,000 0.60 14.86 1,340,000 33,300,000 CFPS ($) (0.02) (0.00) (0.04) (0.01) (0.04)
P/CF (x) nm nm nm nm nm
Go
ld OnlyGold Equiv
US
$ EV/oz $242 $175 Capex ($ mln) 0.0 (5.3) (6.0) (11.9) 0.0
Operating Summary F2013E F2014E F2015E F2016E F2017E Valuation C
$mln $/share % NAV
Pro
duction - Gold (oz) 19,715 189,047 194,448 186,346 175,544
Total Cash Costs - Gold US
$/oz 298 340 322 334 353 Projects
EV
/Prodn Au 16,456 1,716 1,668 1,741 1,848 Shahuindo (DCF, 5%) $577,018 $2.06 75%
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
US$EV/oz (2P+R)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
50
F2013E F2014E F2015E F2016E F2017E
0
Production - Gold (oz) Total Cash Costs - Gold US$/oz
RJ Gold Forecast US$/oz
2P M&I Inf check
25
59
74
103
105
144
193
215
242
VIT LYD VTR GUY KGN SUE>2 R LGC SUE FRG
Source: Sulliden Gold Corp., Raymond James Ltd.

200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
464
Corporate
Working Capital
$47,535
.17 6%
Additional Capital (wts, options) $19,448
.07 3%
LT Lia
bilities

.00 0%
Equity Required (@$2.50/sh.) $127,766
.46 17%
$194,749
.70 25%
NAV
$771,767 $2.76 100%
5% discount rate
Target Current
Va
luation Measures MultipleMultiple
Price
/2011E NAVPS (x)
1.20 0.66
Target Price C
$:C$ 3.20
Projects
75%
NAV Breakdown (%)
Corporate
25%
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
6-Jan-10

Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd. Canada Research | Page 5 of 9
Important Investor Disclosures
Raymond James is the global brand name for Raymond James & Associates (RJA) and its non-US affiliates worldwide. Raymond James & Associates is located at The Raymond James Financial Center, 880 Carillon Parkway, St. Petersburg, FL 33716, (727) 567-1000. Affiliates include the following entities, which are responsible for the distribution of research in their respective areas. In Canada, Raymond James Ltd., Suite 2200, 925 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, BC V6C 3L2, (604) 659-8200. In Latin America, Raymond James Latin America, Ruta 8, km 17, 500, 91600 Montevideo, Uruguay, 00598 2 518 2033. In Europe, Raymond James European Equities, 40, rue La Boetie, 75008, Paris, France, +33 1 45 61 64 90.
This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The securities discussed in this document may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Information in this report should not be construed as advice designed to meet the individual objectives of any particular investor. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Consultation with your investment advisor is recommended. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.
The information provided is as of the date above and subject to change, and it should not be deemed a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. Persons within the Raymond James family of companies may have information that is not available to the contributors of the information contained in this publication. Raymond James, including affiliates and employees, may execute transactions in the securities listed in this publication that may not be consistent with the ratings appearing in this publication.
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Analyst Information
Analyst Compensation: Equity research analysts and associates at Raymond James are compensated on a salary and bonus system. Several factors enter into the compensation determination for an analyst, including i) research quality and overall productivity, including success in rating stocks on an absolute basis and relative to the local exchange composite Index and/or a sector index, ii) recognition from institutional investors, iii) support effectiveness to the institutional and retail sales forces and traders, iv) commissions generated in stocks under coverage that are attributable to the analyst’s efforts, v) net revenues of the overall Equity Capital Markets Group, and vi) compensation levels for analysts at competing investment dealers.
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Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 6 of 9 Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd.
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject securities. No part of said person's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. In addition, said analyst has not received compensation from any subject company in the last 12 months.
Ratings and Definitions
Raymond James Ltd. (Canada) definitions Strong Buy (SB1) The stock is expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 15% and outperform the
S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next six months. Outperform (MO2) The stock is expected to appreciate and outperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next twelve months. Market Perform (MP3) The stock is expected to perform generally in line with the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next twelve months and is potentially a source of funds for more highly rated securities. Underperform (MU4) The stock is expected to underperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index or its sector over the next six to twelve months and should be sold.
Raymond James & Associates (U.S.) definitions Strong Buy (SB1) Expected to appreciate, produce a total return of at least 15%, and outperform the S&P 500 over the next
six to 12 months. For higher yielding and more conservative equities, such as REITs and certain MLPs, a total return of at least 15% is expected to be realized over the next 12 months. Outperform (MO2) Expected to appreciate and outperform the S&P 500 over the next 12-18 months. For higher yielding and more conservative equities, such as REITs and certain MLPs, an Outperform rating is used for securities where we are comfortable with the relative safety of the dividend and expect a total return modestly exceeding the dividend yield over the next 12-18 months. Market Perform (MP3) Expected to perform generally in line with the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Underperform (MU4) Expected to underperform the S&P 500 or its sector over the next six to 12 months and should be sold. Suspended (S) The rating and price target have been suspended temporarily. This action may be due to market events that made coverage impracticable, or to comply with applicable regulations or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Raymond James may be providing investment banking services to the company. The previous rating and price target are no longer in effect for this security and should not be relied upon.
Raymond James Latin American rating definitions Strong Buy (SB1) Expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 25.0% over the next twelve months.
Outperform (MO2) Expected to appreciate and produce a total return of between 15.0% and 25.0% over the next twelve months. Market Perform (MP3) Expected to perform in line with the underlying country index. Underperform (MU4) Expected to underperform the underlying country index.
Raymond James European Equities rating definitions Strong Buy (1) Absolute return expected to be at least 10% over the next 12 months and perceived best performer in the
sector universe. Buy (2) Absolute return expected to be at least 10% over the next 12 months. Fair Value (3) Stock currently trades around its fair price and should perform in the range of -10% to +10% over the next 12 months. Sell (4) Expected absolute drop in the share price of more than 10% in next 12 months.
Suitability Categories (SR) For stocks rated by Raymond James & Associates only, the following Suitability Categories provide an assessment of
potential risk factors for investors. Suitability ratings are not assigned to stocks rated Underperform (Sell). Projected 12month
price
targets
are assigned only to
stocks
rated Strong Buy
or Outperform.

Total Return (TR) Lower risk equities possessing dividend yields above that of the S&P 500 and greater stability of principal. Growth (G) Low to average risk equities with sound financials, more consistent earnings growth, possibly a small dividend,
and the potential for long-term price appreciation. Aggressive Growth (AG) Medium or higher risk equities of companies in fast growing and competitive industries, with less
predictable earnings and acceptable, but possibly more leveraged balance sheets. High Risk (HR) Companies with less predictable earnings (or losses), rapidly changing market dynamics, financial and
competitive issues, higher price volatility (beta), and risk of principal. Venture Risk (VR) Companies with a short or unprofitable operating history, limited or less predictable revenues, very high
risk associated with success, and a substantial risk of principal.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd. Canada Research | Page 7 of 9

Rating Distributions
Coverage Universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Distribution RJL RJA RJL RJA
Strong Buy and Outperform (Buy) 69% 53% 51% 25% Market Perform (Hold) 28% 41% 38% 11% Underperform (Sell) 3% 6% 0% 12%

Raymond James Relationship Disclosures
Raymond James Ltd. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from all companies under research coverage within the next three months.
Company Name Disclosure Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd. Within the last 12 months, Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd. has paid for all or a material
portion of the travel costs associated with a site visit by the Analyst and/or Associate. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd.
Stock Charts, Target Prices, and Valuation Methodologies
Valuation Methodology: The Raymond James methodology for assigning ratings and target prices includes a number of qualitative and quantitative factors including an assessment of industry size, structure, business trends and overall attractiveness; management effectiveness; competition; visibility; financial condition, and expected total return, among other factors. These factors are subject to change depending on overall economic conditions or industry- or companyspecific
occurrences.


Target Prices: The information below indicates our target price and rating changes for SUE stock over the past three years.
Securi t y Pri ce ( C$)
$2. 80
$3. 00
$3. 20
$2. 40
$2. 60
$1. 80
$2. 00
$2. 20
$1. 40
$1. 60

. 80
$1. 00
$1. 20

. 40

. 60

. 00

. 20
Sulliden Gold Corporati on Ltd. (SUE) 3 yr. Stock Performance
Sulliden Gold Corporati on Ltd. (SUE) 3 yr. Stock Performance
Apr - 02- 10
Apr - 30- 10
Feb- 05- 10
Mar - 05- 10
Dec- 11- 09
Jan- 08- 10
Oct - 16- 09
Nov- 13- 09
Aug- 21- 09
Sep- 18- 09
Jun- 26- 09
Jul - 24- 09
May- 01- 09
May- 29- 09
Mar - 06- 09
Apr - 03- 09
Jan- 09- 09
Feb- 06- 09
Nov- 14- 08
Dec- 12- 08
Sep- 19- 08
Oct - 17- 08
Jul - 25- 08
Aug- 22- 08
May- 30- 08
Jun- 27- 08
Apr - 04- 08
May- 02- 08
Price Rat i ng Change Tar get Price Change
Coverage Suspended Tar get Pr i ce and Rati ng Change Split Adjustment
Mar - 30- 11
Jan- 07- 11
Feb- 03- 11
Mar - 03- 11
Oct - 15- 10
Nov- 12- 10
Dec- 10- 10
Jul - 23- 10
Aug- 20- 10
Sep- 17- 10
May- 28- 10
Jun- 25- 10
Dat e: Apr i l 01 2011
SB1 $3. 30
Analyst Recommendations & 12 Month Price Objective
SB1: Strong Buy MO2: Outperform MP3: Market Perform MU4: Underperform NR : Not Rated R: Restricted
Update Date
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Rating
Target Price
Closing Price

Jan-11-11 2.23 3.30 1
Valuation Methodology: Our target price is based on a cash-adjusted P/NAV multiple applied to our NAVPS estimate.
Canada Research | Page 8 of 9 Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd.

Risk Factors
General Risk Factors: Following are some general risk factors that pertain to the projected target prices included on Raymond James research: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product / service pricing could change and adversely impact expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or market shares or new product expectations could change investor attitudes toward the sector or this stock; (3) Unforeseen developments with respect to the management, financial condition or accounting policies or practices could alter the prospective valuation; or (4) External factors that affect the U.S. economy, interest rates, the U.S. dollar or major segments of the economy could alter investor confidence and investment prospects. International investments involve additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability.
Risks - Sulliden Gold Corp. Exploration Risk. Our outlook on SUE hinges on continued exploration success at Shahuindo. There is a risk that future drilling yields only weak mineralization and that the deposit does not expand. Decline in the Price of Gold. A drop in the price of gold could cause investors and creditors to become disenchanted with the commodity, which would make it difficult for SUE to secure further financing. Resource Risk. Our model assumes an oxide resource of 93.0 Mt grading 0.69 g/t Au or 2.05 Moz Au. There is risk that grades reported from future drilling are lower than the average grade we have assumed for the deposit. Capital Requirements. The company has sufficient funds to complete its 2010 work program, however further market decline could make it difficult for the company to raise the capital required for project construction. Surface Rights Acquisition. Sulliden requires additional surface rights to build a mine. The company estimates approximately 1,200 ha are required for the pit, waste dumps, leach pads and plant. The acquisition process is on-going and we believe the company has secured over 700 ha. The ground is primarily used for grazing, so we expect the acquisition by out right purchase and/or land swaps is achievable. Permits. An Environmental Impact Assessment is required for production. Although preliminary work has been completed (required for the Category II Permit) and baseline studies have commenced, additional detailed studies remain to be completed. Additional permits include Mine Closure Plan, Certificate for the Inexistence of Archaeological Remains, Beneficiation Certificate (required prior to extraction and processing), Water Usage, District and Provincial municipality licenses, construction and operational permits, etc. Any delays or denials would adversely affect the project. Metallurgy. To date, recoveries have been estimated based on results from bulk samples taken from surface showings across the property. In 2010, eight PQ drill holes were completed to provide metallurgical samples. The results are pending but adverse recoveries would decrease the metal production and valuation of the company.
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Sulliden Gold Corporation Ltd. Canada Research | Page 9 of 9
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