Toronto-Dominion Bank T.TD

Scotia analyst on td

[bartno12001]

Maintains outperform and $86 target price

Latest Research (October 11, 2024): OUR TAKE: Modestly Positive. Overall, we view the full resolution of TD’s US AML issues as a net positive for the stock as it removes a significant source of uncertainty that has been hanging over the name since the First Horizon deal fell apart back in May 2023. Although investors had been hoping that TD would evade any formal asset cap, our SoTP (sum of the parts) analysis has been consistently suggesting that the market was already pricing in a much more negative scenario that included a very significant deterioration in the bank’s earnings power (see Ex. 1 & 2). Based on TD’s updated disclosure we don’t see that happening, and in fact only revise down our F2025 EPS estimate by 1% (from $8.11 to $8.06). We will roll out our F2026 estimates when we publish our Q4 bank preview, but believe that US Retail segment earnings could actually be higher in that out year versus F2025.


I have 350 shares. I will just hold but we should see a correction towards $84-85

[Ocalaman]

They are definitely an outlier. When you put a cap on growth you and strict oversight ,like a bank daycare, it is not productive. I am really trying to find a positive here and the only one I can find is they will have strict oversight in the USA and you can bet OFSI will be watching them very closely so they will spend ALL of thier time making sure they dont overstep. THe downside to the ruling

[Warosar]

Part of me wants to buy back in but I just shake my head.  

[bartno12001]

I agree but my thinking is the stock is already down so much. Everything is priced in.  I bought another 150 shares at 80.23. Holding 600 shares now. 

[Stocker46]

I'd have to agree with him. It was pretty much what everyone was expecting.(or should have neen expecting) The fact that TD will have some restrictions & closer monitoring in the US is likely a good thing.