True North Commercial REIT T.TNT.UN

Upcoming quarterly report opinions welcomed!

[cooper90]

Been a holder pre-consolidation and have accumulated more since the divi cut and NCIB announcement. Haven't bothered posting but view the posts pretty regularly, also I appreciate the NCIB updates from those on the board sharing.

We are a few weeks away from the first quarterly report since the divi cut, share consolidation and of course NCIB buying and cancelling shares monthly. 

My view, TNT will annouce and reinstate a monthly dividend to start May 1st (IMO), but it will be set taking approx. half or less of the current monthly funding used right now to buy-back shares using the NCIB. Meaning 4-6 cents monthly 48-72 cents annually divi. This at the current share price range of $8.40 would be at or less 7-8% yield. 

The remaining funds currently used after cutting the old divi will continue to be used buying back shares monthly using the NCIB. This new divi + NCIB adjustment comes from 100% of the divi funding prior to the cut which was still below I believe 70% payout. This still leaves money to continue to pay down debt quarterly. 

I hope this new combination of divi + NCIB will provide a pop to the stock back above $10-$10.50 supporting a good floor on the divi percentage of under 8% yield. 

That all said, the actual earnings (with less cancelled NCIB shares) + resigning tenants at higher leases as well any clean up on property sales, I am hoping will be well received and support not only a bottom but a gradual increase after the initial pop on earning success and divi reinstatment. 

That coupled with interest rate cuts throughout the year in Canada starting in June should bode well for increased earnings in the next 2x quarters with additional improvements. 

Those are my thoughts I welcome other opinions, its a lot of ifs.....and wishful thinking but I think at pre-consolidation today around $1.44 (x5.75), we must be at the bottom here even the technicials are looking over-sold.

Cheers, 
Cooper

[garyreins]

Dont overlook the fact that most office reits are in this boat ...the sector is being told this asset class is toxic and wont be around much longer than a few years...true or false thats what invesors are being sold

[flamingogold]

At your lower end of 48¢ distribution, the rate is only 5.7%. I'd rather they just continue buying the shares on the cheap at full force rather than institutue a token dividend. If the market weakens, they might have to cut again which is what happened to HOT.

[cooper90]

I guess from my view point on the higher end its .72 cents, shouldn't existing shareholders get rewarded while we wait or this is basically dead money for the next 6x months to a year.   With a .06 cent dividend it does a few things, allows all of us to continue to reinvest using the divi to cotninue to average down our existing shares over time (regardless of purhcase price). It

[luscar99]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[EstevanOutsider]

i think they should keep going at buybacks for another full round (20% of units outstanding) if they can sell that 3650 victoria park property they can re-instate a modst distribution. this is an epic opportunity that will pay off handsomably in the end. i also don't think tnt will trade back to NAV in current rate enviornment, particularly with such negativity on office. it was trading at

[giovinco]

Yeah it will never go back to ~$35 (or NAV) before the first cut unless they could reinstate 28 cents per month dividend (what it was before prior to consolidation) and stabilize the payout ratio (at or under 100%) at that level. If they could at least reinstate it at 50% then it will be ~$15 and they would also need to show that dividend is sustainable. Very simple and easy.

[flamingogold]

I agree with this. I know we all want that monthly income stream, that's why we invested in the first place in this instrument. But, unfortunately, market forces are still against us. I believe management chose the 6 month NCIB repurchase plan based on a BoC rate chop this Spring. It didn't happen yesterday and the chances are slim for April. Until that first rate drop I think it's

[EstevanOutsider]

good thoughts cooper.  in addition to agreeing to what you wrote, i think we could hear a thing or to about asset sales. they have a couple properties listed such as 3650 victoria park and one small office in hamilton. it seems there could be a vacancy in calgary on the deerfield industrial park property. luckily it's a very high demand area with mixed use zoning (industrial) so should