Tourmaline Oil Corp (Alberta) T.TOU

Difficulty

[fishcarrier]

All right guys, I could stand some help. 1. I see that TOU hopes to produce 527,000 bbls in Q 4 over the 481,000 in Q3. That's an increase of almost 10%. 2. For 2023 TOU hopes to produce an average of 545,000 bbls - 126,000 oil, NGL and liquids, leaving 419,000 bbls of NG. Also a nice increase. Something we tend to forget with our focus on price per mcf. 

Now the conundrum for me: TOU hopes to ship 140 mmcf/d to Japan starting on Sunday, rising to 926,000, which perhaps would average out to 533 mmcf/d. Just how mant bbls would that be?

[TimeBuilder]

fishcarrier - (12/30/2022 10:55:01 AM) Just how many bbls would that be?  Sorry  not very good at Math  ;>(( Hope someone else can provide your answer ... Regards & ALL the Best in  the NEW YEAR, TB

[fishcarrier]

Well, this is where I run stuck. Computer tells me that 1 mmcfd = 178,107 bbls. If TOU starts to ship 140 mmcfd to Japan in a couple days, that would mean 140 x 178,107 bbls = 24,934,980 bbls. But they only produce around 500,000 bbls a day. So, I am stuck. 

[TimeBuilder]

Is your decimal point in the correct location?     ( 178 point 107 bbls ) 140 times  178.107 =  24,934.98 bbls. Not that smart here BUT have been caught like this before when playing with $$ & cents & exchange rates.  ;>O Just asking !!!

[Squint1]

6 Mcf = 1 BOE of oil 140,000 mcf/ day = 23,333 BOE

[fishcarrier]

Squint, I think you've got it!  Tourmaline reports their sales to Cheniere as mmcfd or mmbtu, but I think they mean 1000, not 1,000,000. So, yes, then you get to 23,333 boe/d, and that makes sense to me. Thanks to everyone for their help. That doesn't seem like a lot, but if you think that by the end of next year that will rise to 926 mcf, that makes for 154,333 BOE. Now we're

[Baydog]

My understanding of the 926 figure is that it is for all of their exports including the 140 to Cheniere. The balance is going to California, Chicago, etc.. They  get a premium price for the California gas but it is less than the JKM pricing. Best wishes for the new year.

[JohnSP]

Indeed TOU uses a conversion factor of 6 mcf = 1 bbl, see page 49 of latest Corporate Presentation: [url=As the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.]As the value ratio between natural

[Squint1]

Yes, the 6:1 ratio of natural gas to oil is based on the relative heating value in BTU's - not relative market values.   As far as the impact of the LNG shipments to Asia, as I understand it Tourmaline is selling the natural gas to Cheniere - not the LNG in Asia.   It is sold as mcf's of gas delivered on the Gulf coast and not as barrels of LNG in Japan.  The pricing for the