Tourmaline Oil Corp (Alberta) T.TOU

Anticipated special divis for 2023

[Lupuslupus]

Looks like at current pricing the special divis for 2023 will be a lot smaller than for 2022

the company expects fcf for 2023 to be $5.72 for the year and if they return 50-90% of fcf that will work out to special divis being from $0.50-$1.00 plus the regular div of $1.00 annually

the big prize will be when LNG Canada is completed and put into operation. They are ahead of schedule and anticipated to be complete by end of 2024. In the meantime they continue to drill and grow output, which will put them in a sweet spot when LNG opens up 

Then maybe a buyout, going by Mike Roses track record. That's when CHACHING happens

[JohnSP]

I see 2023F FCF at CAD5.83, slide 8 of updated Corp Presentation. Given that debt is under target, and actually positive if include the CAD1 bln in TPZ.TO shares that TOU owns, I suspect they will go for 90% of FCF which is CAD5.25. Assuming flat BaseDiv of CAD0.25x4 and they've already paid Q1 SpecDiv of CAD2.00, leaves CAD2.25 for remaining 3 SpecDivs, or CAD0.75 per quarter. They are