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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Tourmaline Oil Corp (Alberta) T.TOU

Alternate Symbol(s):  TRMLF

Tourmaline Oil Corp. is a natural gas producer, which is focused on producing natural gas in North America. The Company is focused on long-term growth through an aggressive exploration, development, production and acquisition program in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It operates in three basins, which include the Alberta Deep Basin, NEBC Montney Gas/Condensate and Peace River Triassic... see more

TSX:TOU - Post Discussion

Tourmaline Oil Corp (Alberta) > August Investor Presentation
View:
Post by vwbusman on Aug 19, 2023 7:28am

August Investor Presentation

If you go to the Tourmaline website and read the Aug 2023 Investor Presentation (page 9), they are projecting 2024 Free Cash Flow / Dividends per share at $4.40. This is a fair step down from 2023 projected at $5.53 per share.

 

The implied yield for 2024 at current share price is 6.4% - frankly not all that exciting - seems like they are maybe turning in to an Enbridge type of stock where you are in it for the yield only (albeit with a whole different debt profile)

 

Hopefully they are going with the under promise and over deliver philosophy. They are very good at getting higher than market NG prices and with LNG projects upcoming, maybe some more upside is coming. Obviously gas rates affect this up or down but it looks like stock will likely be flat for some time to come. Debt is down to very nice low level - $682 million by year end.

 

Also of note - a fair amount of insider selling recently (other than Mike Rose) - cashing out performance options (given in the low $20's)

 

Any other takes / opinions on the Investor Presentation ?

Comment by JohnSP on Aug 19, 2023 11:32pm
Agree, CAD4.40 per share for 2024 and basically flat after that for 2025-2028. Slide 8 reflects the same flat forecast. Also slide 23 "Tourmaline matches natural gas growth with contracted egress and local demand increases", so upside on production rates is built in to that forecast. So yes TOU is all about the natural gas (& condensate) price, hopefully it moves up, can't see ...more  
Comment by GunnerG on Aug 21, 2023 12:42pm
TOU is using prices of July 14 which are somewhat low numbers  It changes with each presentation and if they go up the payouts go up    
Comment by Cheadle12 on Aug 21, 2023 11:34pm
Recall "Free" Cash Flow is Cash Flow after CapEx. It's not secret that TOU have a few years of larger CapEx coming up (Aitken, Conroy, Sundown) build outs, but also, do not put it past TOU here to conduct some M&A to boost Cash flow (and FCF). WIth more LNG contracts incoming in the USGC (same with ARX) their FCF will rise. There is also $1BN in Topaz that they can monetize ...more  
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