Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd T.TVE

Random Thoughts

[bows333]

Once again, TVE reminds me of Ultra Petroleum. UP was $2 in 2000, and $200 (accounting for the split) in 2008 before making a really big mistake that led them into bankruptcy. Hang on folks, this has a long way to run.

Patterns last until they don't. The recent pattern is that no one wants to be caught without a long oil position at the Friday close, just in case of a war blows up over the weekend. When Monday morning comes around there is a significant amount of liquidation. Monday morning lows and Friday afternoon highs is now the norm. You can be sure, however, that if I actually tried trading derivatives contracts with this knowledge that the trend would immediately cease.

People confuse Peak Oil with running out of oil. Peak Oil means that oil is everywhere.... And cheap! BUT... It also means that there will be less available in the future, and thus more expensive in inflation-adjusted $. We saw peak oil from land deposits decades ago, We have now seen peak oil from offshore oil, and appear to currently be at Peak Oil from shale. It appears, to me, that if we are not currently at Peak Oil from all sources (and Peak Oil is only known in hindsight, never when it is actually happening), then we are darn close. TVE will be drilling existing land for decades. This is a non-expiring call option on oil that pays a dividend.

Re the dividend: The increase was smaller than it could have been. I suspect that they are setting up tiny increases in the dividend but plan on increasing that dividend annually for many years to come.

TVE is a long-term hold for me; I'm done buying. I hope it stays independent, but I suspect a takeover is likely over the next few years.

[pogohere]

Re: "Once again, TVE reminds me of Ultra Petroleum. UP was $2 in 2000, and $200 (accounting for the split) in 2008 before making a really big mistake that led them into bankruptcy. Hang on folks, this has a long way to run." What was UP's big mistake ? Thanks

[bows333]

Ultra Petroleum owned (still owns, actually, but the bankers took more than 90% of the company in the bankruptcy settlement) a massive gas field in Utah. The gas had been known to be there since the 50s, but was so deep (9-13,000 feet, if I recall correctly) and under such pressure, that every attempted well ended up blowing out. Ultra figured out how to do it. Their break even on gas was less

[bows333]

Continuing my thoughts: I have owned a number of junior companies that went belly up due to debt. It is really really nice to see TVE focused on dropping debt levels. I don't remember all the details, but a year ago (or was it two?) TVE bought out a neighboring private company. Our CEO described it as a "once in a lifetime opportunity." It cost cash, shares, and a lot of borrowed

[bows333]

Everyone needs to find their nitch. I'm not a trader, or a short term holder. I look for great 5-10 year opportunities. TVE is one of the best I see. Am I nuts? Quite possibly, but I see this as a $100+ stock in what I expect the world to look like in 2030. Thanks for listening everyone. You should all form your own opinions, if you haven't already.

[robert41]

Hi Bows im like u i dont trade...curious how you think this is $100 dollar stock in 2030 with a growing ev  market. thx in advance. 

[Jimmy1page]

No clear on how the EV market is going to effect oil prices considering the machinery need to mine everything needed or the fact that they are charged by oil and gas and will be for the foreseeable future.

[VeritasVern]

Yes lets add to that: More expensive than ICE cars A grid system that currently has rolling blackouts and additional demand that EV cars require. $100s of billions in grid expansion needed Few charging stations, particularly in rural US essentially zero recycling options I read a story last week that said green tech was being shorted, gee I wonder why after the Biden hype and wasteful spending

[robert41]

If the green types, indigenous, liberals and special interests like Sierra club and others had been forward thinking 10-20 lplus years ago they would have encouraged canada to help the world get off coal by backing the selling of natgas to china etal. Imagine where we might be without all the coal power plants...you support their philosophy you only have yourself to blame for being swindled by

[VeritasVern]

Sure Robert, have you been living under a rock in the past decade? Since when is natural gas an acceptable source of heat/power generation? We can't get a pipeline built without the government stepping in to buy them at 4x the cost estimated by the private sector.  Canadian companies and investors are trying to sell our natural gas, but the greens the Sierra club, and more importantly the

[robert41]

What ridiculous post... you prefer coal over Natgas it sounds like. Did you even understand my post.. I agree gov's can't build a snowman but they can give the private sector the go ahead to do so which they didn't that was point. Yes Natgas is better than coal which was 60 years ago as is obviously today.  Coal plants are everywhere in the developing world wake up VV. 

[VeritasVern]

I never said I prefer coal over natural gas...I said you seem to think Natural Gas is acceptable with your little cult friends, the green types, indigenous, liberals and special interests like Sierra club. They are  not ok with Natural gas, they want it shut down now. Sorry you can't seem to understand what it is you posted. 

[robert41]

Omg I dislike all those groups how is that not obvious. I'm saying Natgas would have the world in a better place over coal and all those groups got in the way with a lib government not helping. Time for you to post under W to shake things up a bit :).

[VeritasVern]

Robert, who gives a ratsass about your random thoughts anyway?

[robert41]

Probably no one kinda like yours. The good news Tve is crushing it. I guess ol' crazy Joe forgot to hit the down button on the price of oil the last few days hey Vern.

[VeritasVern]

I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking we have to read mostly what is your dribble especially since you can't grasp the fact that nat gas is not ok with your little groupies. You seem like a really simple guy so let me explain that oil is quite low at $71.60 compared to where it was a year ago and up only $4 bucks when it sold off last week when Israel bombed Iran...imagine that escalation

[woodsmen]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[bows333]

All it takes is 50 cents a share in quarterly profit, $2 a year, with an inventory of future wells still there and a marketplace that gives them a PE ratio of 50.

[bows333]

Sectors go in and out of favor. The S&P 500 trades at a 21 PE. The energy sector trades at 12. Government debt is massive, everywhere. Governments have three options: pay the debt, default on it, or inflate it away. Government always chooses the inflation route. Always. Fairly massive inflation is coming over the coming decade, it is easy to see inflation hedges (commodities, in other words

[Jimmy1page]

I think we get a better perspective after the election.  No matter who wins I think oil tanks initially.  

[bows333]

I won't disagree with you. I really don't know or care what next week looks like; it's not one of my skill sets. I'm looking at the 2030 world and trying to sort out what things will look like.