Veren Inc T.VRN

Impact of TMX?

[Marty57]

I keep an eye on the volumes of Canadian oil exported to USA using Table 8 on the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status report.  I expected to see some drop in volumes exported to the US because of the increased volumes flowing west to Burnaby on TMX.  I assume that close to 600 kBbl/d of additional oil is flowing on TMX now thanks to the expansion and that increased volume would largely be shipped to Asia, not  US.  But so far there is no noticable change in exports to the US since TMX start up a month ago.  Cdn Exports to the USA look to be stable ranging between 3.5 and 4.0 MBbl/d for the past many weeks.  What gives? Have Canadian producers increased production substantially to keep exports to US stable in spite of the extra volumes flowing on TMX? Is Cdn Storage getting drawn down to keep the exports stable? Are large TMX volumes being shipped to the US instead of Asia?
The tighter market conditions and higher price for Cdn oil that I expected from operation of TMX does not seem to be happening yet.

[Moemoney42]

I don't think the TMX is runnig at full capacity yet.. and some of that crude is going to refineries in California as well.. hope that answers your query..?

[Marty57]

Thanks... that makes sense.  I guess it might be a few months before the pipeline is operating smothly at capacity and new marketing relationships are established for the oil.

[Moemoney42]

no problem Marty...  I think there will always be a certain percentage of TMX crude that still goes to the US refineries as its the heavy sour that they need.. how much is hard to say at this point..??