We claim the prize today !! Probably already some upside here , given everything you buy has the risk premium that goes along with oil - gas purchases !
We are adding if I am not mistaken over 30 k in barrels beginning today . With the idea they raise the additional gas volumes with this asset to 50 plus k in volume. Given the longer term asset length of 20 years we are picking up here , not only do we increase daily production, we just became massively well replenished with Tier 1 drill sites .
The price we pay for this asset as far as risk goes is shorter term in my opinion and it's not all ROSES if things go wrong in the gas or even oil markets. I actually believe if we get only 3 months or until let's say end of January for perfection with gas prices holding in around todays pricing we will see some kick or upside of SIGNIFICANCE becsuse of this purchase. When you can pay off a asset like this in 2 years with the company's free cash flow ( so not the asset we purchased , but the entire free cash flow from existing and the new purchase ( XTO ) ) This signifies the overall acquisition strategy , so kicking horse - NAL - Torq - bolt on barrels , and all of it combined, this purchase just was incredibly awesome in that we became somewhat bulllit proof .
When is say bullet proof it's not what I want. To me this means we are safe around these prices , and the dividend is safe. I want the upside potential here and to me that comes with a few good months of strong or even stronger oil and gas prices. Then we get what I want and that is 15 to even 20 plus dollars a share this time next yesr.
If things go the way I think they do we see 12 to even 14 dollars by Christmas or end of November early December.
If they go wrong or just stall out we stay around here with ups and downs and maybe it's a traders market for longer.
Longer term , we buy back shares and increase the dividend and we get to $15 to $20 anyway , but it could be a while or a longer wait.
So I see us as 15 dollars by end of November. I also see us roller coasting in around 9 to 12.
My worse case scenario is and this is what I think matters ( risk - reward and this is where " SPECIALLY GOOD was so bang on ) is the down side is what $1 maybe $2 bucks ??
So where I am at 100 % is this is a hold at these levels and you just wait . You will get your day almost certainly and I feel good about that . The upside here with the shiny new toy is actually about 100% plus plus upside
That is my last ramble for August's 2022 Lol
I am not to be trusted and never ever listen to what I say !!
Craig