Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Intelligent Qurestion...Has anyone figured out....

[kavern23]

In our to do a blunt assessment of these cardium public players, I think one needs to guessimate what is the minumum production needed to have CF equal capex...in a softer commodity envrio. ie these are production levels a company could drop rigs and ride it out.

I also considering debt level.

Obe I would day 30k boe
YGR i would say 10k boe

In a 67 usd wti and lets say an average of 2.50 NG...I think YGR FCF's at 12k boe at a decent rate but at 10kboe  i think cf would just match capex.

YGR actually has lots of room to be slow in getting back to work. Same with OBE. OBE could even be 28k,

Not sure on BNE to even guess. I wanna say 12k but it could be 13k.

I do think if any companies in cardium lower capex due to commodity prices it may actually kill stock price abit more. IF we see another leg down in these stocks it wiill be on thid fear,

[TheRexmember]

So many variables between companies Kavern.  the biggest variable to measure when looking at current production is the product mix, followed by price assumptions. WTI oil prices are still highly economic and the CAD conversion still helps a lot. Gas could be a difficult market for a year or weather could surprise. But the gas liquids ratios is also an issue. There are pretty big

[kavern23]

All cardium operating pubic cardium to some aspect share the same risks and challenges. Obe is most different as if commodity prices due trade in say a 65-70 wti enviro and  3 dollar aeco longer term....they have option comparing cardium to other plays like viking or prop for capital. BNE ihas a rig going and it looks like YGR has rig moved to chambers and will be drilling again soon. IPO i

[JohnJBond]

OBE has stated in Q&A during presentation, that their maintance capital is about $200 million. They forecast $400 million in cash flow at $80WTI. When asked about cash flow when oil was about $70, the response was that although oil price had dropped, they were getting more than forecast from the change in US/Ca exchange rate, and the reduction in the heavy oil differential - with the net

[pennydredful]

Wrong board ?

[kavern23]

But John...we both know that OBE stock price would fall under 5 bucks if wti traded under 62 wti for any length of time...this risk is why companies like OBE are so cheap right now. Sometimes risk does get rewarded and I hope it pans out for you.