Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Hedging

[kavern23]

I hope more canadian companies took advantage of the hedging prices for oil for 2024 before todays drop.
In some ways I can see Saudi being pleased with oil dropping below 90. Even down to low 80 s is better for Saudi, Not to Saudi advantage if companies ramp up 2024 and produce at healthy levels using hedges.
Strong USA dollar makes increasing production so lucative for countries like Nigeria that are close to production expansions.
With oil prices bringing in so much revenue now, lots of countries that will attempt to cash in. Other commoditires like wheat, copper etc are down so oil revenue is needed in poor countries.

I have sat out from investing and I will continue to do so. things are too greasy right now. Both oil and ng have more downside chances that upside right now.

I want to be ready though to be buying when it is very painful and lots of red.

Been boring not being in markets but want to be ready for some big opportunitirs coming as I think stocks have further downside from here.

[kavern23]

I dont take too much stock in todays EIA inventory report as gas implied demand must be wrong and likely will be revised later. But it does feel like market is pricing more production coming into the market soon. Could be either Iran to Turkey oil pipeline opening bringing 500k per day  kurds oil to market or someone has seen ship data and Iran has further increased production and exports in

[cfliesser]

Overall I see crude oil hover in the mid 80s to low 90s. supply and demand are nearly balanced, but stocks are low. Nat Gas I think is starting to turn.This is interesting. 1) US supply is not THAT high. Around 5 year average. --> neutral 2) Production has flatlined and even may have started to fall. I see US production growth to be zero over next year unl;ess rig coutn grows substantially

[kavern23]

Cliff the problem on natural gas is NG shouldnt be remotely close to 5-year average on inventory with the kind of a/c demand and lng export levels. Like the hottest summer on record temp wise. USA is still like 5 percent above storage and the problem is if the "warmer" than normal condition carry over Oct and Nov. NG cant build by 50 plus bcf in first week of Nov...or thinngs will get

[kavern23]

It's wierd Aeco hasnt moved yet with Nymex over 3.20 for Nov...maybe time lag...I hope Aeco does go up with USA pull. Going to be a dicey fall season though with NG and even oil...more things can go wrong than right for NG. Wing energy other factor right now The other problem is some companies even cardium ones will drill wells with lots of NG to get at the oil. Some of the east willy are

[Hendrick3]

Aeco will come up. There are pipelines to the US and the difference is too large at present and presents a big arbitrage opportunity. It may take a few days but higher gas prices coming. 

[cfliesser]

No the problem was a very warm winter last year. This led inventories to be high. The hot summer actually reduced projected inventories below what could have been.  It was looking ugly after last winter, now its close to avg. So much improved. Also Freeport was down for almost a year, leading to a big build over time. Now that lng exports are back on track, things are looking better. The

[kavern23]

Cliff..the one thing most people are not mentioning in the 160 USA rig count since start of year is that frac count was only 257 in jan. It was 259 last week and 255 this week. It always has remained the same this year or above even with all of drilling rig loss. I think reason why frac count is so strong is the rigs dropped were not drilling either fracced wells or long horizontal wells. Frac

[cfliesser]

Perhaps, but then why is Nat gas production flat on the year? Why is it declining now? I think oil rigs and frac are still somewhat high, but it's all the Nat gas rigs that dropped. So for your point yes for oil I think they have adapted to longer wells but I think for Nat gas the wells are just less in number. 

[TheRexmember]

A couple of interesting reads in nat gas this week. One on high nitrogen content in some permian gas production ruins the LNG economics when mixed in the pipeline stream. So far they have dealt with it by blending. An item to watch going forward. RBN had one article.  It looks like the hot weather, lower gas production and restart of some LNG has worked inventories back down to the 5

[cfliesser]

Agreed. The way I see it demand has some optimism. What worried me over past 2 years was production growth. But it kind of seems like growth slowed, so demand may be growing faster now. Wonder what coastal gas link will do? Anyone know if it starts fill Q1? Or does it need to wait for LNG export terminal? What's the eta on that? 

[TheRexmember]

It won't be that early but I keep hearing comments that LNG Canada is ahead of schedule. Schedule is 2025 though.  would be nice to hear about LNG phase 2 approval and the other three projects though

[kavern23]

Holy, the website is update and aeco spot fell to 1.80 for this weekend. Ugly price. Short's will start circling soon unless it turns.

[kavern23]

Production growth is going to come in Canada. The problem with high NG prices for most of 2022 was companies tested pure natural gas plays more as high prices made more things economic. I think companies are realzing alot of high producing different zones in Central alberta...competive with some montny stuff. Tourmaline hit viking wells east of drayton with were boomers, 5000-10000 mcf per day per