Boron One Holdings Inc V.BONE

My calculation for the EV price based on the numbers in the

[CriticalMind55]

article are as follows:

Contribution margin :739-165.75 = 573.25 USD X 1.2476 = $715 CDN

715 X 7,800,000 X .687 /21 years/138,772,200 shares = 1.31 EPS

typical Industry Multiples of 8.38 = 8.38 X 1.31 = $10.9778

just to make my point that I was not pulling numbers out of a hat or my behind as one or two stated...

:)

[blueboron99]

Critical, I think you are on to something! Your math is precisely accurate. I have been spouting the same share price since the original PEA was released. The facts then were $5/share when the mining license is issued and $11/share going into production. You have just confirmed nothing has changed in the last 7 years, great work! (bb-99)

[CriticalMind55]

bb-99, "nothing has changed in the last 7 years" but things can get even better with Boron price rising and the undiscovered portion of the mine... Cheers, C

[blueboron99]

Critical, Also if I recall correctly, the last drill program completed at Piskanja was not included in the PEA document. That would be the time Erin drilled the 8 holes in the Jarandol basin between Pobrdje and Piskanja. Erin may have included the tonnage when they completed the Technical Report update on the PEA, I am not certain on that. I will have to check with Blake on that matter. 

[Sasky2005]

BB, your right, the indicated tonnage in the pea was 5.6M tons, the current indicated is 7.8M after the drilling program was completed. The PEA  used $400 USD for a price, way below the current market pricing. Those 2 factors could mean an extra 2B of revenue for EV. EV also used a discount rate of 10% in the PEA which is also way higher than norm. It's not unrealistic to believe that a

[CriticalMind55]

So, to recap what you are saying Sasky2005, $9 full, estimated stock price, .90 at 10% NPV when the deal is signed, $2.25 (25% of NPV) when the license is obtained and gradual climb to $9 when production starts?

[Sasky2005]

That is the information I gleaned for a friend of mine who has some involvement in the mining industry. So I've based my calculations off of his experience and considered the current indicated resource, the increased market valuation of colemanite vs the value n the PEA, our owenrship interest in Balkan post-JV, So I think my representation is pretty close, if not a little conservative.

[CriticalMind55]

We are on the same page Sasky2005, your numbers are more conservative but safe IMO.

[iamlickzy]

Am I reading this correctly??? I sure hope.  90 cents when the deal is signed?  That would be beyond amazing!  I hope this prediction comes to fruition in short order.

[iamlickzy]

Considering no one has chimed in and a near term 90 cents is feasible I guess I will have a beer.  ^_^ I hope to high heaven you're correct CM.  GLTA.

[Lanagold19]

Sasky... I believe in that report they stated that they had a discount factor of around thirty percent in their estimates so as to have an abundance of caution in the report. If you have access to the report read up on that. I thought that it had made mention of that. But not sure as it has been a while now. But if you can see if it makes mention of that. Then we know for sure thanks.. 

[Sasky2005]

Hi Lanny, the PEA used a 10% discount rate to determine the $428 USD post tax NPV, but at 8% it's $510M and at 5% it's a $678M NPV.  I'm told the 5% rate is a more normal discount rate in this low interest rate era. Or were you referring to something else?

[Lanagold19]

Sasky. I thought that on our reserve they had factored in a discount to be certain of the estamate on the tonnage. But I may be wrong.