Up she goes again, spodumene still constant though. Two different sources. Listened to an interesting Fastmarkets vid (youtube.com/watch?v=Rt5g66…, thanks @jenstilmanydots ), some takeaways:
- 1.5 months of cathode/battery inventory being worked through
- EV stock has been building up as well at dealers
- New ICE regulations coming July 1 in China
- EV/ESS (=Energy Storage Systems) demand ramping up expected next month or so, Q3/Q4 EV
- Utilization cathode rates recovering from 40-50%
- ESS demand off-setting EV demand? ESS chemistry will be important, probably LFP dominated
- Sodium-iron an option for ESS? Probably, as all solutions are needed. Might be in EV as well, but same bottlenecks in supplychain expected, teething problems etc
- Lepidolite lithium production in China: lower grade, more waste, but China has less ESG issues
- Fastmarkets has seen carbonate prices overshooting to downside, sees most spodumene stocks being held in tight hands, expects uptick soon
- Europe has waiting lists for EV, Tesla has excess inventory building so confined to non-Tesla main brands
- Open interest on hydroxide has picked up, could be some hedging, funds coming in. Small futures market still
- Fastmarkets doesn't see the 600kY/t levels coming back again, but US$20-25/kg could be a realistic long term average, sees US$40/kg as a sustainable maximum for OEM producers
- Addresses massive nickel supply coming
- Fastmarkets thinks EV will be cheaper than ICE over time
- Fastmarkets sees carbonate increasing about 80-90% by year end, spodumene being more or less constant