I covered this issue about two years ago on this blog at the FAQs tab. Iwill have to update the answer. Five things have changed:
- The horizontals are longer
- Companies are reaching total depth much more quickly
- The fracking backlog is more severe
- Fracking takes less time, depending on the method
- Winter weather is having a greater impact than some expected
Without a serious, statistical study, but just using a "gut"impression based on following the Bakken day in and day out, this is howI would answer. This should be taken as "conversational" and notlegally, scientifically, or otherwise accurate.
First, again, the question: how long does it take to complete a Bakkenhorizontal well, from the date it is spudded to the date the IP test isposted at the NDIC site?
The time to drill to total depth (TD) will vary whether is it a shortlateral (one section, slightly less than one mile horizontal) or a longlateral (two sections, slightly less than two miles horizontal). I donot have that information. Most wells are now long horizontals. Ibelieve the record for a Bakken horizontal was fourteen days (probably ashort lateral), but the usual length of time seems to be about 24 daysto as long as 30 days. They can frac within a couple of days afterreaching TD, and depending on the method and number of stages, frackingcan be completed within three to five days. Once the fracking iscomplete, they can measure the flow. In the "old days," some companiesused an average production rate over seven days to determine the IP, butnow it appears most producers are calculating the IP based on 24-hourflowback achieved early after the well is fracked. So, 14 days + 3 days +2 days, I suppose one could see an IP within 20 days of a Bakken wellbeing spudded.
More likely, 30 days + 5 days + 5 days, one gets an IP within about 40 days of a Bakken well being spudded.
However, more and more it appears that in good weather, there is a waitof several weeks to get a well spudded, and the IP might not becalculated until one to three months later. Thus, from the time thewell is spudded, one may not see an IP until four months later.
In severe weather, the fracking backlog will be worse, pushing the time period out another month or so.
Larger producers have their own frack teams and some of these companiessay they can keep up with the wells that have reached TD. Smallerproducers do not have their own frack teams. In addition, smallerproducers will be at the back of the queue when there is a backlog forfracking.
Some time ago, EOG stated its policy was not to frac the Bakken duringthe winter months (November to February, inclusive). I don't know ifthat is still their policy. It certainly creates challenges for acompany that is required to produce quarterly results.
The NDIC doesn't post information on wells until they have come off theconfidential list. Not all wells are on the confidential list, but it'smy feeling that most are.
Bottom line:
- If the well is a gusher, and the producer wants to promote the company, one could see an IP published in a press release within a month of a well being spudded.
- However, it appears that the standard for IPs being publicized are closer to four months due to a number of factors (weather, fracking backlog). Some are taking as long as six months. (See EOG policy above, for example.)
One caveat: even at the end of the six-month confidential period,some producers will report "DRL" only for "initial production." For somereason, they have not calculated the IP for a particular well. However,production data becomes available at the end of the confidentialperiod.
This posting should be read as "conversational" answer to someone askingme the question with no expectation that it is entirely accurate. Thereare too many variables, but for newbies it should give folks an idea ofthe time line for a Bakken well.
If you have read this far, one more little goodie:
this may be the record for bringing a Bakken well on lineone year ago. It only took 13 days for the "big rig" to reach TD,though it was preceded by the "smaller rig" for surface casing, andthere was the usual time gap between the two rigs.
I would appreciate any comments, particularly where I have made errors. I will update/correct the post.