Bowood Energy Inc V.BWD

shorts

[CravenRaven101]

Looks like they have BWD by the short hairs... given the length of time BWD has hung at this price range it will take a week or two before the shares begin to find higher ground... MY position that each well could be worth a total of $36MM was deliberately simple as I am sure most folks here don't need to be beat over the head with the technical jargon some posters feel they need to add in order to create the illusion of actually having something meaningful to say...

expensive wells are expensive wells... I am sure that even LEG is not up to the task of developing the lands in a timely fashion... one need only look across the border at PBN's efforts over the past 3 years to develop their Bakken assets to understand that the capital required is massive... and that even if costs can be reduced to 6-7.5 MM/well... a short 10-20 well program will run more than $100MM and beyond that to keep production flat would probably cost an additional 100MM/year for 5-10 years... MY previous post was to illustrate that a very large capital investment NOW will take more than a decade to generate a return... IS this a play juniors ought to be playing in???  

 there are only a handful of companies capable of committing to a fast track program for this play... I would guesstimate... that IF BWD finds a suitor... they best be packing near 2 billion in enterprise value... because there's no quick money to be made here...no overnight success is in the offering... the drill program to exploit this piece of the play is going to run more than $500MM over the first 3-5 years... and that MIGHT make sustained production of 5K BOE/d...

elementary numbers to be sure... but they are just to give some sense of how cap intensive this AB Bakken play is going to be ONCE the heavy lifitng actually starts...

 

as always it's just my opinion do as you choose... but git yer own opinion