SGX Aus Coking Coal Feb '22 (U7G22)
438.33s +0.66 (+0.15%) 02/02/22 [SGX]
for Wed, Feb 2nd, 2022
Australian Coking Coal up over 14% from last month. USA Producer Arch Resources, hit new 52wk high today $111.83US 52wk low $39.02. At last report they had around 100ml tonnes of met coal. ARCH has a market cap just over $2bl and a forward PE of 6 like Teck they are making lots of cash on Met Coal.
CAD share price now moving +/- 0.20 on 50K-60K shares. Crazy moves on such a small volume. Obviously not apple to apple as looking at producer to explorer. CAD still performing postive for 52wk on % up just not sure of why the sudden disconect in price this past month. Dec 31st CAD was $2.62 today $2.00 and Arch was $91.32 today $111.00.
CAD 52wk low 0.50 - 52wk high $3.73 moving 52wk average is $1.75 on 42 million shares traded today $2.00 +14%.
CAD 4mth moving average is $2.65 on 20.5 million shares traded today $2.00 -24.5% over last 4mth average price.
CAD last 30 days $2.35 average today $2.00 -15% last 30 days. So trading at a discount today to moving average 30 day and 4 mths still up on 52K $1.75 average.
My guess is the current high price of Met Coal is no longer moving share price of Colonial and the next catalyst will be any news of a bid on the assets or any other news in regards to met coal in BC. Many may not be aware the province of BC depends on the Met Coal mining revenue, Met Coal is a top mining export for British Columbia. A reminder any move to reducing carbon replacing autos ect, and preparing for climate change,dams, expanding housing, hospitals and infrastructure replacement will require vast amounts of steel and coal.
Have noticed lots of talk about tonnes and PEA in the end all that matters is a good offer on the assets.
Majority of large share holders are very long CAD and are holding for the long term not even trying to trade as the volume to buy or sell is very illiquid in blocks over 20K. This past years 42 million traded works out to average 807K shares a week or just over 160K a day that makes for a thinly traded stock.
Its possible that a couple of potential bidders built up small postions over the last 4 mos, obviously no way of knowing.
Share weakness looks like what several have suggested a few retail sellers that bought on the runup hoping to catch a quick transaction and have now lost patience over the past few months. Nothing has changed todate other than the steel producers are paying ever increasing amounts for Met Coal and are having to lower production, increase steel prices or reduce profit margins.