Ceapro Inc V.CZO

Must Say No, because AEZS will go to 0 in around two years

[tigerpro]

AEZS:  50m cash last year,   now only less than 38 million cash left (in addition, it has huge debt).    It loses around 16 million every year.   It will go bankrupt in around 2 years. 

Its directors' salary is 15.6K -20K USD per year,   that is ridiculous.    Your dear Mr. Gilles Gagnon is collecting 15.6K USD per year from AEZS as a director.    The stock price dropped more than 90% during his tenure.    He is the worst public executive I have ever seen. 

AEZS, as a German company:  it is very hard to fire its high salary management teams and employees.

Evern worse, it has a quite high debt (more than 12M USD), it is related to German employee retirement plan.      So its real cash balance is less than 26 Million USD.    Its stock price will go to 0 in two years. 

For CZO,  at least its stock price will not go to 0 in two years without merging.  However, afrer merging, CZO can go to 0 in two to three years.  So we mush say "No" to the deal. 

In addition, I dislike the two companies' management teams so much.    I don't think they deserve to stay any longer.  So I have to say No for whatever their proposal.     They must be removed by their shareholders whom they never respect or care about.

[tigerpro]

Mr. Gilles Gagnon knows he will be removed as CEO from Ceapro next year.     So he has to do something to protect his high salary.    Both companies' management team and directors all have the same ideas.  If you vote Yes, you will save them.  After 2-3 years, they each will collect 1.5 Million USD more, and they are happy to retire,  but the new

[tigerpro]

I have many years' global equity investment experience, more experienced than most people here.   However, I made a huge mistake investing Ceapro.   I trusted Gilles Gagnon and believed his words.   After I found he is a liar without integrity, it is too late. 

[Alex1726]

Why don't you just sh... the f......up. I have many years' global equity investment experience, more experienced than most people here

[Ciao]

Absolutely, your thoughts echo mine. The purpose of the new merged company is to tout PGX so they can raise funds to sustain themselves. Investors know this is a cash burning machine so it trades below cash value and the lack of insider ownership tells investors that the management team has no confidence in the prospects of the company. This is not a merger but a sellout of CEAPRO, valuing an

[lscfa]

US license fees were about $750k/qtr until paused. Assume Europe will be the same. Then double it for child mrkt => $12M/yr revenues

[lscfa]

Maybe closer to $24M/yr revenue.  Novo originally agreed to a 15% royalty but is was reduced to 8.5% when they accelerated an upfront payment. Also, the European license is for royalties in the 10% to 20% range.  

[tigerpro]

Novo has terminated the license in 2022 after they realized they made a mistake.    Nobody else will make the same mistake again to license a drug without much market needs.

[prophetoffactz]

With all clinical trial costs completed and approval for children what royalty could AEZS receive on a new North American licensing agreement? The only thing left for the partner to do is sell the product. Novo Nordisk's royalty may have been low because they financed the childhood trial and needed a return. The childhood market is also the most lucrative. Could AEZS receive 40% of revenue?

[Tencents]

A likely scenario would be that the distributor requires 30% to support sales and marketing 10% for admin costs 30 % to the manufacturer this leaves 10 % for royalty and a net 20% for profit to the distributor 

[tigerpro]

12M/yr revenues?   The chance should be very small if not zero.

[lscfa]

WRONG...."(in addition, it has huge debt)"

[tigerpro]

You will find the huge debt if you study their German employee retirement plan.  

[lscfa]

The $10 million employee pension plan liability is the sum of discounted future payments. The annual payouts are not large.

[tigerpro]

The pension plan liability has been growing quickly as inflation rises.  Their investment return can not catch up the inlation. 

[lscfa]

Stop the BS...     End of  Employee pension liability Sep 2023 10,105 2022 11,159 2021 17,485    

[tigerpro]

The pension liability volatility is from discount interest rate change,   when interest rate is high, the liability drops.  The interest will drop from 2024,  so the liability will increase soon.   AEZS:  loss 16M/year;     11M pension liability It will be bankrupted in 2 years

[tigerpro]

Even the annual payouts are 0,  the more than 10M liability is still there.  The firm needs to pay the huge liability sooner or later. 

[lscfa]

More lies...    

[prophetoffactz]

The interest rate sensitive XBI is up about 20% since September 30, 2023. How does that affect the pension benefit plan as interest rates may be falling sharply?

[Ciao]

Lots of discussion on pension benefits. Does that show a $21M liability at the end of 2022? Nonetheless, the big picture is the shareholder value destruction that will not change with the merger as the same principals will be in charge.