Ceapro Inc V.CZO

Diagnostic test

[prophetoffactz]

It's six years after this deal. The pediatric trial costs have been absorbed as well as the time. Novo Nordisk bought them out and paid ~C$250 million(cash, equity) plus tiered royalties. Gilles should have a very good idea about the new deal. H.C. Waignwright has a C$100 million market cap target for AEZS.

 

• A wholly-owned subsidiary of Strongbridge Biopharma plc has snapped up the North American rights to Aeterna Zentaris Inc.‘s lead product, Macrilen. 
• Aeterna Zentaris will get a much needed $24 million upfront, and royalties for the patent life of the drug, at a rate of 15% for sales up to $75 million and 18% above $75 million. After patent expiry, royalties will drop to 5%.
• Strongbridge will also pay milestone payments of up to $179 million on sales targets and on a pediatric U.S. approval, and will fund 70% of pediatric development costs.
• Post-review, Aeterna Zentaris strikes commercialization deal | BioPharma Dive

[prophetoffactz]

Add it all up... This deal was six years ago... If CZO was to sell the diagnostic test for upfront cash upon approval for the pediatric market(the most important market) what could it get? US$24 million upfront... US$179 million in milestone payments linked to pediatric approval and revenue... 70% of pediatric trial costs covered... 15-18% royalties...

[prophetoffactz]

Aeterna Zentaris Enters into Licensing and Assignment Agreement with Strongbridge for Macrilen™ (macimorelin) in the U.S. and Canada   January 17, 2018 07:00 ET | Source: Aeterna Zentaris Inc.Follow Share CHARLESTON, S.C., Jan. 17

[prophetoffactz]

US$24 million upfront... US$179 million in milestone payments linked to pediatric approval and revenue... 70% of pediatric trial costs covered... 15-18% royalties... Upon approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) of a pediatric indication for Macrilen™ (macimorelin), Aeterna Zentaris will receive a one-time milestone payment of US$5,000,000 from Strongbridge. US$4,000,000

[Tencents]

Hard to evaluation but on like like basis it could be 1. upfront circa 30 m 2. targets - sales targets on that deal were not reached si the 179 probably was 0 3.royalties say 15 % - sales 3 annually - say 1 m royalties in an off comment in local press novo said sales were at very low end of range  problem with this device is it is too small for the big fish and too big for the small fish who

[prophetoffactz]

Novo wanted AEZS's diagnostic test to synergize with its human growth hormone deficiency drug. 90% of its human growth hormone deficiency drug sales are to children however and AEZS's diagnostic test was still years from launch for children. The test could finally be approved for children this year and launched in 2025. The pediatric trial had been delayed by COVID and Russia's war

[prophetoffactz]

"Hard to evaluation but on like like basis it could be 1. upfront circa 30 m 2. targets - sales targets on that deal were not reached si the 179 probably was 0 3.royalties say 15 % - sales 3 annually - say 1 m royalties" The deal with Strongbridge for AEZS's diagnostic test was six years ago. The test can now be licensed with clinical trial risk, risk of trial delay for the tests

[Tencents]

Yes that starts to establish a ball park the Sales indicated seem un achievable so unlikely to have anything like that in a deal The upfronts for clinical costs would be on the table of course probably as the bigger players won't be interested and it's only the big can afford such payments A smaller player certainly won't pay as they don't have the funds and may even ask a support

[lscfa]

Children market no larger than adult market....

[prophetoffactz]

Significant pricing flexibility was expected for children given the Orphan Drug Designation for the test. Also, children are a realitively small group compared to adults allowing efficiencies. The urgency for growth hormone deficiency is also more acute in the childhood market and there is greater awareness of the need to test in children. By gaining the important childhood market they could have

[Tencents]

Yes apparently it is not a major market and big pharma is not interested by dfinition a patient is a one off test  probably this market will not deliver much to aezs