https://eldia.com.do/tendra-fin-mito-del-costo-politico/<br /> <br /> <br />
Without yet being three years old, the government's successes are blurred by the paralysis due to analysis of problems that continue without a solution, such as the worsening of electricity distribution, conflicts and complaints in public education, increasing attacks on social security, delays in permits in mining and chaos of transportation and transit.
These are not problems that are the exclusive responsibility of the current government, although they did create expectations of changes. The common ingredient is excessive prudence in the face of the "political cost" of confronting particular groups that harm the majority social interest and managerial incompetence of some officials, unable to execute works or keep promises despite having funds. The EDEs provide supernumerary employment, but do not charge even 65% of the energy they buy. That infeasibility does generate political and financial costs far greater than the advantages of the status quo. In 2022, they received over RD$108 billion in subsidies, instead of giving utilities and electricity.
In the Ministry of Education, Roberto Fulcar was fired, the uncertainty continues due to the failure since 2012 of the investment of 4% of GDP for education and laziness to demand from the teachers' union its commitment to public education.
The disastrous results of the multimillion-dollar state investment in basic public education, astonishingly, provoke less outrage than street violence or other social issues. In 2022, Education received RD$231.2 billion, 18% more than in 2020.
In social security, various deputies, leftist spokesmen and the Medical College, absurd and seditious, demand the abolition of health insurance and pension administrators; They look neglected and without response by authorities.
In transportation, mafias disguised as unions continue to control this business to the detriment of passengers and cargo customers.
They buy impunity for buses, trucks and unionized motorists, who violate laws causing chaos and endless traffic jams.
In mining, the largest foreign investment, Barrick, is hard at work waiting for a permit for a tailings dam; Falconbridge faces fierce opposition to its expansion and survival by community groups that supported the PRM; Gold Quest can't even do an environmental study to develop its gold mining in San Juan de la Maguana.
Contrast
These stumbling blocks contrast with the notable successes of President Abinader in preserving stability and growth, vaccinating in the pandemic, resuscitating tourism, minimizing inflation of external origin, avoiding shortages, prosecuting corrupt suspects, attacking drug trafficking, modernizing customs, and rescuing the road toll, apart from his defense of sovereignty in the face of foreign pressures due to the crisis in Haiti. Will that be enough to get re-elected?
“Of that one” or gonads are not lacking, as demonstrated by his police reform and the border wall.
The idea of “political cost” comes from the “price”, measured in popularity or votes, that is paid for something, referring to political actions, whether by the government or the opposition or by individuals who carry out or wish to deal with public affairs. It is th
e expected negative consequence of decisions that affect interest groups with political influence.
The concept arose with the rise of social sciences and public opinion measurements in the first half of the 20th century, but it is described in much earlier treatises on strategy and the exercise of power.
false fear
There is a large body of scientific evidence refuting the unfounded fear of many politicians about the cost of reforms, alleged by those who decide based on surveys.
The model that rationalizes as an immutable equation that any reform or measure to which part of the public claims to oppose causes a damaging political cost is fallacious.
“There is evidence that governments that carry out reforms are not punished by voters”, concludes a documented study by the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, published in 2011 by Alessandra Bonfiglioli and Gino Gancia
The recent report "Political Cost of Reforms, Myth or Reality?", by Ciminelli, Furceri et al, published by the International Monetary Fund, after comparatively analyzing the results of structural reforms, explains the possibility of reform without negative electoral impact, provided that economic considerations are internalized to avoid dramatic shocks.
A large literature supports a counter-intuitive theory that refutes fears of political cost, including the studies on the effects of reforms on production and employment, by Ostry, Prati and Spilimbergo, published by the IMF in 2009, 2016 and 2019, which demonstrate political gains for their proponents.
do?
It is in the government's interest to get rid of anything that prevents it from concentrating on its achievable objectives without fear of false political cost. Tax reform can wait until 2024, but requires re-election.
Economic research, unlike surveys, which measure moods and not concrete realities, proves that the political cost is only real and harmful when reforms are carried out 1) shortly before elections, 2) at times of contraction or recession, or 3) suddenly affecting the availability of goods or services due to scarcity or higher prices.
It is a paradox that, by avoiding uncertain political costs, the government pays consequences for inaction by expecting different results by doing the same as its predecessors, despite a favorable Congress.
Abinader must apply the formula of his laudable successes to these pending issues, reorganizing his cabinet, since it seems that the political cost of not doing so – including risking his re-election – is greater than that of acting decisively to resolve them.