First I looked at 2021 and 2022 to see how they compare.
2021
Q1 - $5 million (Record Q1)
Q2 - $3.3
First Half - $8.3 million in revenue
Profit - $345k (record profit in first-half)
2022
Q1 - $2.7 million
Q2 - $3.1 million
First Half - $5.8 million in revenue
Profit - (-$975k)
What do we know about 2023 so far. Here is an excerpt from Q4/FY results:
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At August 31, 2022, the Company had a sales backlog of approximately $5.6 million and has announced aggregate contracts of approximately $6 million subsequent to August 31, 2022.
Given this information, we can infer that as of today Jan. 10th 2023, there is a total backlog of $11.6 million. Given $5.6 million is a backlog from Q4, we can expect a lot of this will be billed in Q1. Then we had a $1.9 million dollar contract announced Nov 17th (Q1) and then $4 million announced in Q2. Doug stated in the $4 mil news release "the company expects to complete the contract in Q2, Feb 28, 2023". Then we had another SEPTA deal for $250k in Q2.
Given these assumptions, I think it is fair to assume Doug will realize most but not all of that $5.6 mil backlog in Q1 - along with the $1.9 million. Therefore:
2023
Q1 - $5.9 million (assuming 4 of the 5.6 is realized, and the full $1.9)
Q2 - $5.85 million (assuming the remaining $1.6 mil backlog and the $4 mil SEPTA upgrade, and the $250k SEPTA upgrade)
First Half - $11.85 million (assuming no further contracts announced in Q2 (ends Feb 2023) Keep in mind, the first half revenue should be accurate, but if Doug realizes more of the backlog, we could we Q1 as high as $7.5 million, and that would mean Q2 is a round $4.25 million. Either way, this would result in a record Q1, record Q2 and record First-Half of the year. If we infer the margins to be the same as FY at 46%, that is a gross profit of: $5,45 million.
GIven general G&A is around $2.1 mil a quarter, we can infer around $4.2 mil in expenses.
Overall: I am think we see first half revenues around $11.85 million (as of now), with gross profit around $5.45 million, expenses of around $4.2 million, and a net profit of potentially $1.25 million. This would be records quarters all around. These are just estimates and something to get the conversation going. It all looks good to me.
A couple more good contracts and this could end up being a record year for us. Here's hoping and GLTA.