Post by
LithiumNPV on Aug 25, 2017 3:46am
The Bottom Line
A company with 2 million tonnes of LCE can be valued very simply. We can expect even more resources from this company, but for the sake of being conservative let's stick with 2 million tonnes.
Production should reach 80,000 tonnes of LCE per year because demand goes through the roof at least till 2030. A fair discount rate is 8%.
To extract 2 million tonnes will take 25 years at 80,000 tonnes/year. Just think of all the other brines they find in that time (even going into Chile and Bolivia eventually). This will be a multi-billion dollar company.
The price of LCE should stay above $20,000/t for the foreseeable future. Lithium makes up 2% of the weight and cost of the battery so expect the price to remain above $20,000 for a very long time. It costs only $3,000/yr to extract a tonne of LCE. That's a profit of $17,000/t per year. Very conservative! The current price is $25,000 already in China.
That's $1.36 billion in profit per year ($17,000/t x 80,000t). The net present value of these numbers comes to $14.5 billion / 100,000,000 shares = $145. 100,000 is conservative.
Now I realize $145 is a bit high considering unexpected challenges, but certainly LIX should be worth more than $2, NLC worth more than $1 and AAL worth more than 40 cents.