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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Laurion Mineral Exploration Inc. V.LME

Alternate Symbol(s):  LMEFF

Laurion Mineral Exploration Inc. is a Canada-based mid-stage junior exploration and development company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of Canadian gold and base metal mineral resource properties. It is focused primarily on its wholly owned 57.43 square kilometers (km2) (14,191 acres) flagship brownfield, Ishkoday Gold and Polymetallic Project, located... see more

TSXV:LME - Post Discussion

Laurion Mineral Exploration Inc. > Cynthia’s post on LinkedIn today
View:
Post by GoldBelt on Jul 19, 2023 11:49am

Cynthia’s post on LinkedIn today

Awesome to see our CEOout there prospecting.  Frequently posting photos on her profile.

Notice the first hashtag used... "private equity"   

"Prospecting with my wingman Rick Cote northwest of the shaft area, exposing known and unknown quartz veins and large shears north of the shaft.  Rick is one of best prospectors I have ever worked with. No weather too hot, no matter how intense the bugs are, or how challenging the environment, Rick is always at the ready. If there is mineralization to be found, Rick will find it. Together prospecting in the field, we are amazing complementary team!"
#privateequity, #miningnews, #drilling, #investing, #goldmining, #mining, #familyoffices, #news, #production, #markets, #team, #ESGinvesting, #ESG, #EV, #Gold, #Silver, #Copper, #Zinc,#stage,#environmental,#development,#Canada, #project #geology

Comment by matlas on Jul 19, 2023 12:14pm
Not sure that the "private equity" hashtag has the significance that some think. A few weeks back, someone suggested that it was new, and some sort of clue. However, I checked linkedin postings from as far back as 2 years ago, and it was there. Maybe even further back, I didn't bother to check. To me, the bigger question is what is the real significance of her being out there ...more  
Comment by GoldBelt on Jul 19, 2023 12:33pm
I agree with you. I believe all along it was private equity as a potential buyer vs a miner such as Barrick. I'm guessing that  years ago a deal was in the works but it fell apart when LME realized the mineralization was greater than expected and this holding out for more $.  Maybe a deal will be made just for ishkoday ... "We recognize the significance of the current view of ...more  
Comment by matlas on Jul 19, 2023 1:09pm
I am of two minds regarding the most probable kind of buyer. On the one hand, private equity would sooner be able to handle the all cash requirement; however, private equity may sooner be looking to menetarize their investment by another "flip" in (say) five years, which might put more pressure on the amount that they are willing to pay now. The highlighted portion you quoted was what ...more  
Comment by fatlas on Jul 19, 2023 6:17pm
To me there are three things to take away from Cynthia being in the field - the first two of which are very, very positive for the company and us shareholders: 1. Our CEO is a hands-on leader - an up close manager - a geology expert - an obsessive person who wants and needs to be involved and manage every aspect of this project. I've heard it said that she loves the field work - but even if ...more  
Comment by matlas on Jul 20, 2023 8:17am
fatlas, regarding your point "3", I would think that the LME Board together with legal counsel could handle all the details regarding such an announcement quite ably while Cynthia is in the field.
Comment by fatlas on Jul 20, 2023 8:36am
Totally agree matlas!! Maybe it's just my coping mechanism - my way of getting through the days while we wait. Happy to be wrong on this one ;) The way more important point that I've learned is in 2 - is exactly your point that they are pursuing all of this work simultaneously - they have a team with lots of resources to do multiple things at once. Unfortunately - they don't (can' ...more  
Comment by LaurionLong on Jul 20, 2023 10:48am
Yeah I'm totally with Fatlas on this.  Cynthia is definitely our dynamo but the list of professional partners carrying some of the water has grown steadily over the past 2 years to become more of a support mob.  Those are some best in class partners and bring real horsepower to the table to expand the ability of the company (including the buyout) to advance while Cynthia is in the ...more  
Comment by Not2smart on Jul 20, 2023 3:46pm
I still believe, the are not drilling because they don’t have too and Cynthia is in the field keeping busy until BO.  Keeping us Share holders entertained with pictures.  Prospecting for the new owners.      
Comment by matlas on Jul 20, 2023 3:56pm
I think you are getting smarter and smarter!
Comment by Sheerms on Jul 20, 2023 4:28pm
IDK. I feel that if she is prospecting for more mineralization, she is going to drill. A company is not going to pay for that newly discovered mineralization unless you can prove it's enough to constitute a higher price. And if she thinks that there is more in the ground, in the name of maximizing shareholder value, she is going to try and prove it. Thats why the feel I get is that they are ...more  
Comment by matlas on Jul 20, 2023 4:36pm
But, that assumes they have not yet made a deal and struck an agreement on price. We don't know what is going on behind the scenes. If they really have already made a deal, and this is just "business as usual" until they finalize certain details sufficiently to announce it, they may not be expacting any more $$$ for what they find now. In the end, they can only get so much ...more  
Comment by matlas on Jul 20, 2023 4:45pm
For example, if they announced a BO today there would be (say) two month until it closes. I am sure that during those two months, she would still keep her crew busy with exploration-they have the $$$ in the till to pay for it. However, obviously they wont get any higher price for what they would find.
Comment by goldenI on Jul 20, 2023 5:31pm
I can't say you are wrong. No one really knows but I'm not sure I would want that based on what it would be acquired for. We can all agree that Laurion's stock price and market cap are not representative of it's value, Ok, but I would argue that market cap is a good representation for larger and more established producers like Equinox, Kinross and Barrick. I will use USD as that ...more  
Comment by Timeandmoney on Jul 20, 2023 5:42pm
GoldenI, I agree. Buy LME now and plan to go from .50 to $2.00 is a great move for people who want to take on some risk, and if the best possible outcome materializes as others on this forum predict they will not be disapointed. There is good upside for this stock without assuming a grand slam home run type outcome. I remain long. Time and Money
Comment by matlas on Jul 20, 2023 5:44pm
Ridiculous comments because it will only sell if they can get a high price. The idea that there is a deal behind the scenes would all be predicated on the assumption that she gets her price, which would be a hell of a lot more than $6.
Comment by keen2know on Jul 21, 2023 1:01am
Im sure it would be on here from prior conversations, but can someone tell me what % Cynthia and Roger own of LME? 
Comment by fatlas on Jul 21, 2023 1:18am
Sept 2022 numbers had Cynthia at just under 16.5 million shares. Roger doesn't have to report his holdings but I've always understood him to be the second largest shareholder - so total of 30 million?! I've been told she used to work to keep her holdings just under some kind of 10% regulatory limit - that must have taken some work both corporately from Treasury and in the market. She ...more  
Comment by fatlas on Jul 21, 2023 1:30am
Correction: It's not the only explanation why someone would NOT sell or buy any shares - but it fits what we all believe to be true. 
Comment by fatlas on Jul 20, 2023 6:09pm
Thank you goldenl - and anyone and everyone who is producing math on this business - I love all of it!! I don't have any math of my own to share but I believe LME will sell based solely on two things - how much gold is there and how expensive it is to get - not on revenue - not on their ability to produce. They are a junior exploration company that will sell to someone or something that will ...more  
Comment by LaurionLong on Jul 20, 2023 8:00pm
It's actually low Fatlas, more like $350 on the Ishkoday but stick with you math and just to be a skeptic cut everything in half on mineralization. Still $5.00 per share.  That's 10x from here.
Comment by fatlas on Jul 20, 2023 9:24pm
Got it - but seriously - what's with all the cutting and lowballing and being 'conservative'?!?  Here's my new math - using your much appreciated $350 number: 10,000,000 oz X $350/oz = $3.5 billion $3.5 billion / 250 million shares = $14/share Whether this gets sold to a senior for that down the road - or we sell to someone who takes it further and sells for $14 to a ...more  
Comment by goldenI on Jul 21, 2023 10:55am
Hey @fatls. I agree, multiplying price * number of ounces is one way to value Laurion, but the value of those ounces is only going to be realized over a long period of time (lifespan of the mine), so indulge me in presenting an alternative. Instead of valuing the total number of ounces, value the number of ounces produced/sold in a single year times the sale price and minus the cost of production ...more  
Comment by JoJoHairBlo on Jul 21, 2023 1:01pm
Golden, One of the things I've been thinking about when LME talks about wanting to find other overlapping veins and structures is that a suitor would find it attractive to get at the most concentrated areas first (obviously), thereby recovering thier inital investment in a relatively short period of time and cutting down on cost of capital. Someone mentioned the Donlin project in Alaska the ...more  
Comment by fatlas on Jul 21, 2023 6:48pm
Thanks for the math ride goldenl - seriously - that's a good way through the process!! And the outcome make sense to me - even though I do think all of the process gymnastics you've listed (life span, production profit margins etc) are really both the literal and descriptive business of the acquirer.  We can be interested in it - curious - and LME leadership should understand their ...more  
Comment by matlas on Jul 21, 2023 7:46pm
I am only responding fatlas as a coutesy to you because you mentioned me. For the record, I think Goldenl's calculations and positions are ridiculous like most of the things that he writes, but I am not going to waste my time on it. As to whether the end buyer is a producer or private equity, I don't agree that there will be a sale to a buyer who will resell to a senior. I don't ...more  
Comment by fatlas on Jul 21, 2023 10:06pm
Thank you Matlas! I'm not sure at all one way or the other what type of target they want to sell to - but I know it will sell - and that the sale will be for a LOT more than $11/oz.  As far as I'm concerned there are three major risks to investing in juniors - (1) that the anticipated mineralization just isn't there - (2) that the companies are run badly (or put another way for ...more  
Comment by LaurionLong on Jul 22, 2023 3:38pm
THIS  
Comment by goldenI on Jul 22, 2023 2:48pm
Hey @fatlas I am not rejecting your number although I do think it may be a little high. I am saying I do not see anything close to it right now, however here is a scenario where I can see it in a few years. I think that in any negotiation understanding the wants and needs of the other people involved is critical and not doing so is not doing your due diligence. Especially when there is so much ...more  
Comment by matlas on Jul 22, 2023 5:35pm
If anyone in this forum really subscribes to the view that GoldenI just posted, then the logical conclusion is that they should immediately sell all their LME stock and walk away, because: (a) Nothing is going to happen for a few years, so why stay invested now, and (b) Cynthia and the LME board are one or both of the following: 1) Incompetant, since they don't know that they have to do all ...more  
Comment by fatlas on Jul 22, 2023 11:14pm
Here's my take - based on our $0.44/share - $11/oz  closing price on Friday... If matlas is correct (and I hope he is) then we will see some version of $350/oz realized in the near term - a full 31x from here. That's a big win.  If goldeni is correct then we are either in for something like $150/oz in the near term (14x from here) or $350/oz (31x) in the medium term.   ...more  
Comment by LaurionLong on Jul 23, 2023 12:55pm
1,000,000% agree with Fatlas   
Comment by fatlas on Jul 23, 2023 8:50pm
That's a lot of %s LL!! A little more math before we open tomorrow and move away from $0.44/share.  If you subscribe to matlas' way of thinking and a $350/oz sale price, our 256 million shares outstanding And $0.44 share price equates to the Ishkoday having 322,000 oz of gold on it. if you subscribe more to goldeni's way of thinking and is $150/oz you get to 750,000 oz of ...more  
Comment by KaBams on Jul 24, 2023 6:15pm
With all this calculation going on, ok there are very many ways to come up with many different results. What we can be pretty certain of with current published results the market seems to think it is only worth 44 cent currently. There is enough gold investors in Canada alone  with decent knowledge to move this stock if they believe there was a decent chance of 5-10 million once in the ground ...more  
Comment by JoJoHairBlo on Jul 24, 2023 6:38pm
Many have speculated that it is being hed down by a Laurion-employed market maker.
Comment by KaBams on Jul 24, 2023 11:41pm
One has to assume things have and are being done fairly. Holding stock price down when family and friends portion has been going up would be problematic behaviour. We need to believe what it is at right now, is what people in know believe it should be. If someone thought based on drilling results released et al, indicated value 20 x or more they would buy and stock would go up. All getting ...more  
Comment by fatlas on Jul 25, 2023 12:54am
Hi KaBams - love the name!! I understand Integral is the LME market maker and have been told that doing their job - adding liqudity to the market to provide a more orderly and stable stock price - can sometimes look like they are keeping the stock down (by being involved in a number of downtick trades) - when in fact what they are doing is attempting to smooth the ride on the way down. Wide ...more  
Comment by GoldBelt on Jul 25, 2023 8:41am
I agree with market makers adding liquidity to the trading day.  However, what really moves a stock is investment firms buying into a stock.  I don't think there's enough shares available for the BIG money to buy up to make it worthwhile their investment AND they can't accumulate enough to have influence on the share price (ie dumping shares to scoop up later at deep discount ...more  
Comment by matlas on Jul 25, 2023 8:52am
I think that the reason Cynthia has it structured that way Goldbelt is to maintain a firm grip on control. My understanding is that before I got involved in 2019, she fought off an unriendly takeover and did that in part by making sure that shares were issued that would remain in friendly hands. As I have theorized on this forum in the past, that is probably the true reason that they don't ...more  
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