Good evening everyone! There has been a lot of discussion lately about 2.5mill geo's and 12.5mill geo's, do we have more, do we have less, etc. but I feel like Doug has given us a clue in the past few months that would help us figure out approx how many we do have. Let me explain...
Despite everyone complaining that all Doug does is post you tube videos for us to watch, if you take a step back and listen to what he is telling us, everything makes a lot more sense. If you look at Doug's post from Aug 28 at 6:27pm - Doug suggests that we listen to what
Michael Gentile has to say and then Doug says,
"He mentions how you can own most junior miners today at $5-10 per ounce." There were a few other videos he shared that I believe discussed how junior miners are trading for less than $10/share like LME.
We have been consistently hovering arouond the 0.38-0.40 range, so I will use 0.39(which ironically is where it closed today). Let me show you this fomula...
Outstanding shares X stock price = Market Cap
Given that Doug and others think junior miners are trading around $10/share...
Market cap/$10=Approx Mineral resource estimate
Our current Market Cap(MC) is $105,300,000/$10=10,530,000 GEO's
But he said it was less than $10 so...
MC/$9=11,700,000 geo's
MC/$8=13,162,500 geo's
MC/$7=15,042,857 geo's
...you get the point.
I will give you my perspective of value which may not be popular with the $2-4'share folks, but I guess I'm entitled to my opinion as you are. Osisko Mining sold for $1.6bill USD for 50% of the company. $3.2bill total valuation.
They had 4.1M OZ Measured and indicated, 3.3M OZ Inferred and 3.2M OZ Probable.
Total of 10.6M OZ GEO’s
This prices ALL the geo’s at $302/oz on average. Gold was at approx $2450 at the time.
Great Bear Resources sold for $1.8bill CAD($1.35bill USDat todays exchange rate)
Kinross who bought great bear just released the PEA and suggested that there are 2.738M oz measured and indicated, 3.884M oz inferred for a total of 6.6M geo’s
This prices all the geo’s at $204/oz, gold was at $1800.
You can guess at how many geo's we have but the 12.5M OZ total(2.5 Measured and indicated)has been floating around. But based on my math above, all of a sudden 12.5mill geo's doesn't seem unrealistic anymore.
12.5M X 302 = 3.774bill USD(approx 5.2billCAD)…gold is at $2650. So does she want $325/geo? or more?
You can see that for every $100 in gold the value of a geo moves up approx $15-20 based on the difference between the time great bear sold and more recently when Osisko mining sold. Now, I am not saying that today's gold price is the be all end all but it certainly helps. Maybe they use a daily or weekly VWAP to average the value of gold, which would be a more steady number and less risk for the buyer.
How many more geo's has Cynthia proven since USCG completed there DD? I guess we will find out. But I am excited each morning hoping that I get a notification that the NR we have all been waiting for is now published and we get the material change.
Cheer Y'all