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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Mcf Energy Ltd V.MCF

Alternate Symbol(s):  MCFNF

MCF Energy Ltd. is a Canada-based junior resource company. The Company is engaged in the identification, and the exploration and development, of both proven and unproven reserves via drilling and/or acquisition with a focus on the European oil and gas sector. The Company has secured interests in several significant natural gas exploration projects in Austria and Germany with additional... see more

TSXV:MCF - Post Discussion

Mcf Energy Ltd > Welchau Flow Rate Guesses
View:
Post by practicalguy on Sep 30, 2024 5:43pm

Welchau Flow Rate Guesses

There is a lot of great technical information in the Welchau News Release. 


The D'arcy flow equation requires knowledge of pressures, viscosity, reservoir height and permeability. 


For pressures, the mud weight is 1.9, SG so the reservoir pressure is likely at least a gradient of 1.6 SG or about 27,000 kPa. The downhole flowing pressure can be estimated by the API (44 degrees is about 0.8) and GOR of about 1000 s F per bbl which would lighten the column to about 0.6 SG. This equates to 10,000 kPa. Overall, the delta pressure is about 17,000 kPa. 


The viscosity of 44API oil at reservoir conditions will be close to 1 cP or the same as water. I assumed the height of the reservoir would be about 6 m. 


Putting all this together gets you about 350 bopd per mD of permeability. Fractured limestone reservoirs can have wildly changing perm. It is helpful that the over pressured reservoir would help keep fractures open. 


A few papers I have read give a reasonable perm range for an active hydrocarbon system as a range between 1 and 10 mD and a log normal distribution. 


My guess is 3 mD perm for a test rate of about 1000 bopd. 


I hope I am in the ballpark because that would be a very good well. 


We have a bit of time before we get results, so we should all guess - because it truly is a guess and announce a winner when the real results come out.

Comment by westshore on Sep 30, 2024 10:43pm
Thanks for you insight and clarification! Exciting Play!Huge long term potential. N/G in favour(BNN today)Investor says he is Bullish on N/G in the 6 month to three year time frame. I think it is a good time to accumulate some of these beaten down O/G plays over the next six months. Happy investing! GLTA