Pro Forma Numbers
posted on Aug 25, 2014 09:42AM
Here are our numbers as mentioned. I have cut and pasted this to quite a few of you so if you wish to share then fine. But its the same information for all. I would like to keep it off the board as it just gets subject to ridicule. I bare no malice to those that disagree but really have a problem with those that have glasses with blinders beyond $5, if you understand what I mean,.I welcome comments, criticisms etc. These are just probabilities I/we know. But strong probabilities.
There are some things I can`t reveal due to private company property, and processes used, but here is what we came up with in a simplified version.
First step was to estimate as best as possible the revenue growth. In doing so, allowing for the fact that POETs asset base will experiencing exponential growth over the first five years (and beyond). We also allowed for penetration of select applicable markets over that time as well. We used some industry standard numbers for sales of semiconductors, and allowed for a reasonably disruptive growth gradient.
These are similar methods as to what we would use in our division calculations and obviously with different number values. We used a 5 year plan assuming the first 5 years and assigned a year for each as an example. For the purists, `(Rainer was correct) we did use a spreadsheet and inputted various component values. We helped the factoring in of a mania by using a very steep earnings curve, increases in market share and overall semiconductor market gains year over year and then balanced it out.
YR GROSS REVS EPS AFTR MRGN/SHRE SHARE VAL W/ PE
2015 ---478M---------$2.27--------$.22-----------$14.96
2016----4.46B--------$21.23-------$2.12---------$144.16
2017--- 16.8B---------$80-------$8.00------------$544
2018- --54.77B-------$260.47-----$26.07---------$1772.76
2019- ---96.4B-------$457.14-----$45.17---------$3071.56
We then divided each number by a constant of 210 m O/S. To get a gross earnings per share.
We assumed that operational expenses would be low, debt, etc included, and that margins would be in and around the 8-10% margin area. A PE ratio would be low at first and climbing as earnings grow exponentially along with the PE ratio. So we averaged a PE ratio at around 68. Its will be undoubtedly much higher in later years as POETs market penetration becomes much larger.. We also assumed the semiconductor market as a whole would grow as a whole with year or over year gains above 6%. Additionally POET would experience exponential growth year over year as new business lines, and uses for POET emerge and sales by type grow as well.
Do I/we understand what we are saying, and the values calculated ? Yes that was our whole point of the exercise. We ran these combinations several times over because the unit numbers seemed so unreal. No matter how we adjusted, we came back to some serious values, almost comical to the jaundiced eye. The POET story, the POET product and the Poet Technologies have marketing cache of a globally substantive nature written all over it. The POET product has a monopolistic effect when considered. To put it simply, EVERYONE will want a device with it contained within.
This will generate unprecedented numbers in our view. In turn generating unprecendented share values or share value equivalents.
THIS is why the management of the company wants to licence it.