Post by
wexworth on Nov 30, 2020 9:31am
Solid Update
Some good information here.
Dividing the elements into two parts - the first part which is grounded in reality, and the second which is in process and could go in a variety of directions:
Part 1 - the real things:
1. Wanbang is happening but we don't know when they will come out with an update, period. The last time the CEO spoke to this, there was an indication it would be sometime this year. Could be early next, but zero warning which keeps things very interesting. Why they would add the extra sentence referring to milestone payment is beyond me. Is it possible Wanbang has progressed beyond what we are told because I don't believe we are in for a milestone payment going to next phase of clinical trial. Why add this. I do remember that Wanbang is insisting to keep things highly confidential. This leads me to second point.
2. SGLT2 pets - the wording they chose here suggests that this is also a surprise situation. Perhaps not within the next four weeks, who knows, but doesn't sound like we are far off there. I have confirmed that this partner is also highly sensitive about remaining 100% confidential. The fact they did additional due diligence is highly intriguiing when combined with Wanbangs behaviour along the same lines. The Sirona website suggests that the efficacy rate of SGLT2 inhibitor has significant advantages over commercially available competitors. What is with this particular technology that is creating conditions where both players are insisting to be so secretive?
3. Huaxi - I would say the original intent of the earlier agreement has evolved but I am not holding my breath here as it looks like Sirona has already moved on with other partners. Huaxi was originally seen as the vehicle to obtain CDFA 1067 .4% approval. The regulatory environment is undergoing significant changes right now, so the question is do we even need them.
4. Tinyi and the larger development group - Wuxi manufactures, Tinyi distributes and gets the product into the consumer hands, so they need to get the regulatory partner (point 3 -maybe) confirmed. I think once this is confirmed, and it sounds like there is some form of larger strategic alliance being put together, we will see the Tinyi agreement finalized and off to the races we go on that. Watch that space as I think point 3 and point 4 are inter-related.
5. Rodan - this one again is real and going to happen. The risk at this point is quite minimal in my view but since the market doesn't see it that way based upon the current share price, I sense that there lies within the opportunity. My view is that the launch of this, along with the February release of .4% clinical trial with this new global top 10 company will be the fundamental catalyst to drive some aggressive interest in China. I believe the Chinese scientific partner, Huaxi or others at the table right now, have a very limited timeframe to get into the deal here. If I were the Chinese company official representing Huaxi or the other partner, your career could very well be defined upon your ability to get his one wrapped up - either you are going to make it happen or completely lose out.
Part 2: the future
1. Anti-aging - sounds like this is another example where Geraldine's science is creating an urgency to move resources away from anti-viral to anti-aging. This is interesting. This is the right decision in my view (I didn't always think so) and I believe the market appreciates this as, as when Sirona announced anti-viral, shareholders were not happy they went that way. More focus on getting the existing pipelines to market was the message.
2. Anti-viral - if this works out similar to the quality of technology coming out of skin lightening, SGLT2, and Anti-aging, then this will be an exciting pipeline to develop. I put no value on this at the moment but they should keep this moving along as time permits.
If this update was issued on a Friday, I think that would have sent a different message. My view is that things are changing quickly and we are very much poised for a breakout.
Comment by
Crazydan on Nov 30, 2020 10:07am
Please remove your rose colour glasses!!!!
Comment by
lscfa on Nov 30, 2020 1:09pm
Updates with zero visibility on revenues, cash flows are worthless.
Comment by
Skyhigh911 on Nov 30, 2020 10:00pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by
lscfa on Nov 30, 2020 1:14pm
Co. should add a countdown clock on patent expires.
Comment by
Dareg on Nov 30, 2020 1:18pm
The patents are not enforceable in China.... wake up people.....
Comment by
Dareg on Nov 30, 2020 1:23pm
If you know what a Chibson or a Chickenbacker is , you should be very concerned.
Comment by
lscfa on Nov 30, 2020 1:21pm
More important is what is not said. No assurance that co. does not need to do any financings soon. Wasn't there prior comments that co. was good to end of 2021?
Comment by
zerbo on Nov 30, 2020 4:53pm
And the Oscar goes to : How to blow a New Golden Standard !
Comment by
Skyhigh911 on Nov 30, 2020 10:02pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy