Theralase Technologies Inc. V.TLT.W

My rough math with assumptions

[N0taP00p]

The total BCG resistant NMIBC opportunity is estimated at $1.1B to $5B annually (corporate presentation).  Assume 300M shares (options and warrants inclusive) and assume a conservative opportunity of $1.8B, give or take, after BTD approval. I'm assuming the other 60% of the available max of $5B will be split between newly-approved or in-process trials. Then apply a conservative valuation of 1X of sales. That would put the stock price in the $6-$7 range, if my math is right. That's a nearly 3000% rise from current levels, over a period of UNKNOWN time.  All with one indication and without considering other opportunities as a combo drug with immunotherapy and gene therapy. The experts here can hopefully fix any major gaps in math.

 

So the big need is for the clinical data to be so undisputably good that this treatment becomes the de-facto for BCG resistant NMIBC. To be considered for more upstream use (before trying BCG - as a standalone, or  in combination with already approved drugs like BCG or Keytruda) might take a while, give how cautious the FDA is of late.  IMHO.   

[N0taP00p]

I would also expect that they would attempt a 5 to 1 split if the stock holds steady above $1 after BTD.  Then list it on the Nasdaq and raise money much more easily. Then negotiate for a JV or sale from a position of strength. The BTD golden buzzer needs to go off on-time first

[fecats]

There will be no reverse split. It is my understanding that AA is required for commercial revenue, not BTD 

[Oilminerdeluxe]

I seem to recall. Dr. Kulkarni said in a video that 30% would be considered "phenomenal". We are at 28% with half of the participants having the wrong dose. I would say that qualifies us for that 30%. Happy to see him presenting the company at the conferences. One thing I do ponder. Since the last update with treated patients, there have been new patients treated since that, right?

[kisedig]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[RoseHeaven]

No need to uplist to Nasdaq through reverse split. I saw many stocks uplisted to Nasdaq through reverse split and then shorters beaten down the stock price to absolute death. I am happy where we are listed right now until TLT has a sustained share price over $5.  Thanks, RH

[Infinity]

I think, reverse split would be a bad idea. Once we get BTD,  AA will follow very soon.  With AA, I believe we can go directly to commercial stage pending that the treatment meets the pre-set FDA guidelines within a pre-set time frame.  That would be a more prudent way to go...

[fecats]

Exactly