Victoria Gold Corp VITFF

2023 VGCX Revised Production Guidance - Misguided?

[HoneyBadger77]

On Aug 9, as part of Q2 Results, the following remarks were included in the Outlook portion of the report that clearly spooked VGCX retail shareholders to dump their shares or not add more to their holdings Victoria Gold Corp. | Victoria Gold: 2023 Second Quarter Results (vgcx.com):

" 2023 Production Guidance remains intact at the Eagle Gold Mine and is estimated to be between 160,000 and 180,000 ounces of gold.

Prior to the impacts of the East McQuesten wildfire, which led to the evacuation of the Eagle mine site in late July and early August, the Company expected to achieve annual production toward the top end of the Guidance range. After considering the impact of the evacuation, the Company expects production to be closer to the lower end of the Guidance range. Should wildfire activity in the Yukon cause further disruption to the Eagle mine site, the Company may need to revise Production Guidance."

At the time, the wildfire situation was dynamic and so it was no doubt difficult to assess just how bad things would or could get and so revising guidance lower was necessary and prudent to prevent potential shareholder litigation.  However, we now know that the impact of the wildfires on VGCX Operations and Production was not nearly as dire as it could have been and thus, the revised production guidance to the lower end ~160,000 ounces is in my opinion not very likely. In fact, my assessment is that full year production is quite likely to meet or even exceed the ~180,000 ounces upper end of guidance.

Now before you all say HB77 has lost it, here's how I've come to this conclusion.  Upon analyzing / comparing VGCX quarterly and annual data from 2020 to 2023 (to June 30th) I found that 2023 results are tracking very closely with 2021 when VGCX produced 164,222 ounces.  Except now, VGCX in Q1 and Q2 2023 has already exceeded 2021 Q1 and Q2 production by 24,289 ounces.  So if we add these additional ounces to the reported 2021 annual produciton and assume that 2023 Q3 and Q4 production will be at least the same as Q3 and Q4 2021, we get a potential 188,511 ounces produced in 2023!  That's considerably more than the lower end  ~ 160,000 the company guided in August.

I'm estimating that the wildfires cost us about 5,000 ounces of lost production in 2023 but let's be generous and say we lost 10,000 ounces.  That takes my estimate for 2023 full year production to around ~178,000 ounces (so top end of revised guidance not lower end).   If I'm right about lost production being only 5,000 ounces then that equates to ~ 183,000 ounces produced in 2023.  Now if VGCX was to produce 183,000 this year does anyone think the share price will be sub $6.00, I don't.

I'm going to include the various links I used so you can do your own due diligence analysis but the main metrics I compared was Mining Rate (tpd), Ore Stacked on Pad (tonnes), Ore Stacked Grade, Thoughput (Stacked tpd), and Gold Ounces Produced.  Of particular note, the Ore Stacked on Pad in Q1 and Q2 2023 in is 4,607,539 tonnes and in the full year 2021 was 9,157,313 tonnes so assuming stacking in 2023 Q3 and Q4 is more or less equal to Q1 and Q2 then we are on track to Stack about 9.2 million tonnes ( ~ the same as in 2021).  The stacked grade in 2023 so far is .80 gt vs. .85 gt in 2021 but if VGCX stacks .90 gt grade for the last half of this year that will average the grade out to .85 gt (same as 2021).  I didn't compare the 2021 vs. 2023 gold recovery rates but they should be the same or better since 2021.

Here's the links I used:
Victoria Gold Corp. | Victoria Gold: 2021 Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Results (vgcx.com)

Victoria Gold Corp. | Victoria Gold: 2022 Fourth Quarter & Full Year Results (vgcx.com)

Victoria Gold Corp. | Victoria Gold: 2023 Second Quarter Results (vgcx.com)

Victoria Gold Corp. | Victoria Gold: Eagle Gold Mine Q4 And Annual 2021 Production Results (vgcx.com)

Victoria Gold Corp. | Victoria Gold: 2023 Second Quarter Results (vgcx.com)

[Human7]

Thanks for that voluminous post HB. I think in the Denver presentation JM said they lost 10 days due to wildfires. Not sure how that factors into your ounces calculations.

[HoneyBadger77]

Well Human7, assuming that Q3 production is at least 50,000 ounces and there are about 90 days in a quarter, so using a simple calculation, 10 days equates to approximately 10% of the Q3 production or about 5,000 ounces.  I indicated 5,000 lost ounces due to the wildfire in my previous post with up to 10,000 ounces but I believe it will more likely be 5,000 ounces which puts my 2023 full

[kegman]

A lot of large retail bailing today.  The again, who is buying?  I hope you are right HB77.  WE shall know in a few weeks.  I also do not see how the US Dollar is staying up.  Usually when the showdown in Congress over spending is approaching the dollar gets hit does it not?

[HoneyBadger77]

My guess Kegman is the institutional holders are buying up the retail seller shares of those who are using stop losses, have to sell on margin, or are selling out of fear.  Any serious VGCX investor knows the true value of VGCX and isn't selling at these prices.  With VGCX having such a low float of just around 66 million shares, it's pretty easy for someone to manipulate the

[VanillaFondant]

If it's an attempt to drive off retail, to make a hostile bid, and it fails, does these leave VGCX in a place with a low market cap and retail unwilling to come back to pick up the shares? Does this entail another year just to get back to the peak share value of July? I'm genuinely wondering when this attack ends.

[kegman]

Some of our American holders play the short game.  I am speaking of institutional holders.   WE are in bed with some nasty folks.  Regardless of gold being down from the recent highs we are still above $1900 US and we have hedged over this value until next Sept 2500 OZS a month.  Yesterday's volume wreaked of shorting.  

[HoneyBadger77]

Here's a link that lists the largest VGCX shareholders but note that it is different than the list on Page 15 in VGCX (website) September Investor Presentation: Victoria Gold Corp. : Shareholders Board Members Managers and Company Profile | CA92625W5072 | MarketScreener In this link, GMT Capital (hedge fund) and Coueur Mining are shown as being the 2 largest shareholders, conveniently

[HoneyBadger77]

Gold up over $60.00 today and yet VGCX can't even break past the $6.15 daily high on Oct 11th?  Looks like it's time to revisit my previous post and rethink the questions. I've been trying to confirm whether Coeur Mining still owns the over 6 million shares of VGCX that is still showing on the Market Screener website today Victoria Gold Corp. : Shareholders Board Members

[kegman]

Couer sold out ages ago.  The Hedge guys are holding this back.  Management is aware I believe.  

[HoneyBadger77]

Looks like you're correct on that Kegman, I just did a Google search and this came up....didn't see this before.  There's no link in Google associated to this but it does seem legitimate so I think one can conclude that Coeur is completely out.  Who picked up the 6 mil shares from Coeur?  T. Rowe Price Associates perhaps? So then if Coeur is no longer considering a

[VanillaFondant]

It's frustrating, trying to figure out who could be doing the shorting, when purchase and selling histories are not frequently updated or reported on. The worst case would be a major institution who has the means to engaging in kiting strategies with 'Fails to Deliver' shares. The TSX has been historically worse for the ability of institutions to perpetually extend the two day

[HoneyBadger77]

Well we may not know who is shorting VGCX but according to FINTEL's website, the "Short Interest % Float" is only 0.53% or about 350,000 shares.  This low amount of shares available to short would be less of an issue if the daily shares traded wasn't around 200,000 to 300,000 shares. If you look at the FINTEL link VGCX Victoria Gold Corp Stock - Share Price, Short

[kegman]

Naked shorts?

[HoneyBadger77]

Naked shorting is an issue alright but from what I can tell, there are at least some IIROC rules that lenders of short shares need to follow.  If the info in this link doesn't make your eyes glaze over then you're a better man than I....Lol.    Joint CSA/IIROC Staff Notice 23-329 – Short Selling in Canada | IIROC ii. Short selling and pre-borrow requirements "

[kegman]

Stateside naked shorting is still allowed is it not?

[HoneyBadger77]

Naked shorting is not legal Stateside.... Although Short Selling Is Legal, Why Naked Short Selling is Illegal with Consequences (prnewswire.com) SEC.gov | SEC Charges Investment Adviser and Principal in Abusive Naked Short Selling Scheme HB77

[kegman]

Maybe on the big exchanges but isn't VGCX over the counter Stateside?  If what you are saying is true...then for sure management knows who is doing it.  400,000 shares would not be that hard to trace.  

[HoneyBadger77]

VGCX or VITFF stateside trades on the OTCPK (OTC Pink Sheets) on the NASDAQ Victoria Gold Corp (VITFF) Stock Price, Quote, News & History | Nasdaq  but I don't think the average daily traded volume of 45,000 VITFF shares is enough to take VGCX down like it has even with the after hours trading available via the NASDAQ.  Interesting that on Friday - Oct 13th VITFF only traded

[givemeabreak1]

Naked Shorting is not allowed in anymarkets!  That said, the definition of shorting is not always the same.  For example what may be a short in Canada may be a naked short and illegal in the US.  A naked short in the US is when you have not located shares to cover or borrow if need be to cover a short sale. In Canada you do not need to locate the shares all that is required is that

[HoneyBadger77]

Here's a Wikipedia link that provides all the info most of us will ever need to get our heads around the Naked Shorting topic.  Naked short selling - Wikipedia From what I can see, in the US atleast when shares cannot be borrowed from a lender to cover a short position they are merely considered/called FTD - "Fail to deliver".   Well isn't that just like the

[givemeabreak1]

Do not forget a common definition of a naked short in Both countries. Being naked while shorting a stock

[OCB1234]

I never knew that but, then again, I never short stocks so I'm always fully clothed. :)

[givemeabreak1]

Nothing wrong with being naked now and again!  The wind hitting the naked body loaded with cash no complaints for sure.  Some day some one will realize this thing might be a winner but it would require Big J walking the plank!  

[HoneyBadger77]

Retail shareholders are a fickle bunch, often trying to time the market.  They are usually late to the party when buying and often sell when they should be buying.  Their decisions are often driven by emotion and the story of the day.   Right now the media is selling the narrative that the price of gold rising won't occur until interest rates peak and start to fall and the