Victoria Gold Corp VITFF

My Take

[MVargas]

I think it is possible that JM was not lying a few weeks ago when he said that Victoria had no plans for a financing. 

I believe it was likely that this was an emergency equity raise to pay the mandatory $11 million debt payment on the Term Facility due on March 31.  The financing was filed on March 28, just a few days before the due date of the debt payment.  And yes, I know that flow-through financings are only eligible for exploration purposes, but I think you have up to 2 years to expend the funds - plenty of time to replace the loan, as it were, to make the debt payment.

However if JM was not lying, it does show JM's lack of awareness of the company's dire financial state.

I don't expect additional drilling at Raven any time soon.

The next shoe to drop will be the Q1 Financials in early May where VG will most likely report negative earnings per share with AISC well above the high end of the 2024 forecast range.

The biggest concern one has to have is the falling grade.  The last 4 quarters it is has been 0.74, 0.65, 0.65, and 0.63.  A disturbing trend; Q1 was not a one-off occurance.  Remember the reserve grade is 0.65g/t but the first 3 years of operation the stacked ore grade was > 0.80.  You would think that eventually the stacked grade has to average 0.65. 

So even if operations are able to increase the volume of stacked ore on the HLP to something approaching 3 million tonnes in Q2, the actual gold ounces contained in that ore may not be as great as Q2 of 2023 if the ore grade is significantly lower than last year's 0.74 g/t.  

Another factor that will impact Q2 gold production is the lower residual ounces recovered from the delayed leaching process from fewer ounces stacked on the HLP in Q1.

If Q2 2024 production is less than Q2 2023, it will be interpreted by the market as yet another "over-promise and under-deliver." of the 2024 guidance.

I know many will be thinking that this is a biased opinion because I no longer own shares, but just be aware of the risks and act accordingly.  Believe me, I am not looking to get back in.

It would be a shame to miss out on this gold bull market.

My opinion only, but as HB likes to say, DYODD.

[HoneyBadger77]

Great feedback as always MVargas!   I'm pretty sure I can pull some more questions out of this for VG management at the upcoming Annual Meeting.  I'm sure they'll try and divert by saying we can take the questions off-line and my reply will be no, I want these questions answered on Record.  It's just too bad the meeting is in Vancouver or I would be going in

[Human7]

Yes Vargas you are biased, as you thought someone might think.  The biggest concern is the falling grade? Talk about spin. "...the company's dire financial state."?? Really? Let's face it, you did a classic cash out near the bottom and now you want it to go back there. 

[MVargas]

I don't really care what you or any other poster here thinks.  I was relieved to get out when I did, was kicking myself for not getting out earlier, have no regrets and can't imagine ever jumping back into the cesspool when there so many other well-managed companies. I once held a 100k+ share position in VGCX and started rotating out of VGCX into KRR (and others) in mid 2022 and have

[Human7]

Well, I'm glad you're still commenting, even if i think it's biased, you say interesting stuff. Glad your other investments have done well.

[Greatdaysahead]

Always appreciated your posts here. Thanks. on my side still stuck here as I gave a last chance tonthe Mgt but my decision is taken. No more trading positions here and next orders will be sale orders. Where to invest the proceeds.. one criteria will be the mgt team  for sure!